The Thai export value has fallen steadily since early in 2015, attributable to a slowing global economy, especially China, Japan and other key Asian trade partners, as well as other factors. Among them include falling prices of Thai shipments due to declining global commodity prices, e.g., crude oil, plus structural restrictions within the Thai manufacturing industry that have deprived our high-tech products from meeting the needs in the global markets, as well as the expiration of EU GSP tariff privileges.
It is therefore quite certain that our outward trade will be in negative territory of over minus 5 percent in 2015, being the most disappointing performance seen since 2010, underlining the fact that our overall export value has remained laggard for the past three years.
With no signs of recovery in sight, we at KResearch have assessed that Thai exports may resume growth of 2.0 percent, or within 0.5-3.5 percent in 2016 given a very low 2015 base. The recovery will likely be subdued since key trade partner economies may remain fragile in 2016. Important factors that warrant close monitoring next year include the Chinese economy and global commodity prices, e.g., crude oil.