The value of Thailand's November exports reverted to 10.2 percent YoY growth, thus our 11M16 shipments contracted only 0.05 percent YoY. The increase was driven chiefly by steep growth in some key export categories, e.g., auto-parts to other car manufacturing countries and gold, as well as petrochemicals and related products as a result of rising global crude oil prices in November.
Given this, we at KResearch expect our 4Q16 exports will continue to expand over 3Q16; therefore, Thailand's overall shipments over 2016 may grow marginally at 0.1 percent YoY, beating the 0.5 percent YoY contraction projected before.
Looking into 2017, we project that our outward trade may advance 0.8 percent YoY, or somewhere within a range of (-)0.5 to 2.5 percent growth YoY because the prices of many commodities have begun to pick up. If that favorable uptrend continues, the 2017 export performance should lean towards our current projection of 2.5 percent growth YoY.