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20 Jul 2017

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June Export Growth Beating Expectation – 11.7% Amid Weakening Export Prices (Business Brief No.3691 Full Ed.)

 The Thai export value stood at USD20.28 billion in June, reaching the USD20 billion level for the second time this year. That total amount exceeded last year's performance by 11.7 percent as well as surpassing the market estimate of 7.9 percent. One reason behind this growth was unexpectedly high farm exports, even amid weakening farm prices, thus reflecting increases in farm export volumes, particularly rice and sugar.
Another driving force has been the Internet of Things (IoT) trend, which has greatly buoyed electronics shipments by a number of countries. Thailand has been no exception, with our electronics exports surging 19.1 percent YoY. Generally, uptrends in electronic merchandise last about 2-3 years, so if Thai businesses can remodel their production to match the IoT trend, such merchandise could become a mainstay of our exports throughout 2017.
Taking into account Thai export data over 1H17, an unrelenting recovery in the global economy and trade, plus the rising trend of electronics products, should help maintain growth momentum of potential exports in 2H17. However, that growth could also be softer than 1H17 performance, since it could be hurt by commodity prices that will gradually fall as crude oil prices tend to fall below 1H17 levels.
Considering the above growth trends, we at KResearch have raised our full-year export growth forecast from 2.0 percent YoY to 3.8 percent YoY.

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