September Exports Rise, 9M17 Growth 9.3% Buoyed by global recovery, higher commodity and electronic prices (Business Brief No.3707 Full Ed.)

 During the first nine months of this year (January-September 2017), Thai exports soared 9.3 percent YoY. September results continued higher to 12.2 percent growth YoY, driven by gold, products having prices linked to oil, and electronic products. When excluding the shipment values of gold and products linked to oil prices, Thailand's September exports rose 6.0 percent YoY, building in tandem with the global economic and commodity price rebound, which is attributed to a remarkable surge in exports from the Asian region.

Overall, Thai exports in the first nine months were mainly fueled by Electronic and Electrical Machinery () exports, plus rubber stock and rubber products, wherein EE exports accounted for about 30 percent of our total exports. The ratio of Thai EE exports to the total was however lower than those of neighbors such as the Philippines, Singapore and Malaysia, reflecting that the Thai export structure still differs from other ASEAN states.

However, exports of electronic goods are expected to slow in the future. The market for personal computers (PCs) abroad has already begun to decelerate in this quarter, as evidenced by a 3.6 percent YoY[1] decline in global shipments of PCs. Due to that trend, close attention should be paid to this export category.

At any rate, KResearch views that Thai exports during 4Q17 may decelerate from the 9.3 percent growth seen during the first nine months due to an absence of price effects as earlier experienced because 4Q17 commodity prices are expected to maintain their current status quo. However, the better-than-expected export performance due to healthy gold shipment could possibly lift Thai exports for full-year 2017 to rise above 7.0 percent.