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13 Mar 2023


Thailand's shrimp export growth expected to be in a range of -3.5 to 0.5 percent in 2023 amid a slowdown in major markets, despite demand from China (Current Issue No.3386)


       KResearch projects that the value of Thai shrimp exports in 2023 may reach USD 1.06-1.10 billion, growing in a range of -3.5 to 0.5 percent YoY.  Due to the economic slowdown in key markets like the US and Japan, their demand for shrimp production may decline. However, the export growth would be attributed to an expected increase in demand – especially fresh/chilled/frozen shrimp – from China following its reopening, as well as new markets such as Taiwan and Hong Kong where the Thai government has entered into trade negotiations on agricultural products. Nevertheless, as the value of shrimp exports to the new markets remains small, it hardly offset the demand slump among major markets.

       Looking ahead, trends for Thai shrimp exports may depend on future demand from export markets in line with economic conditions and adjustments to cope with business challenges. In terms of competitiveness, Thailand is at a disadvantage in two key aspects: intense price competition and rivalry with competitors that enjoy greater benefits from trade measures imposed by trading partners.

       Amid multiple challenges including highly volatile currencies moving in both directions, Thai shrimp exporters may focus on exploring opportunities in new potential markets to diversify risks, such as countries in the Middle East, in addition to improving production efficiency to ensure reduced costs. Moreover, the business sector should brace for the impact of climate change that may cause increased costs of raw materials (affecting cultivation, survival rate and shrimp production levels), trading partners’ measures and consumers’ growing awareness of sustainability issues. These factors present both opportunities and challenges to generating returns for businesses. However, the potential decline of Thailand’s shrimp exports this year may put pressure on domestic shrimp prices and net income of shrimp farmers. As a result, challenges lie ahead for all related parties, including the Shrimp Board, to maintain price stability so as to boost production, while also fostering sustainable competitiveness for the Thai shrimp industry.