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21 May 2026

Real Estate and Construction

Real estate lending in 2026: Limited recovery amid pressures on both developers and homebuyers (Current Issue No.3644 Full Ed.)

คะแนนเฉลี่ย
  • Although 1Q26 data reflects continued growth in private residential construction activity at 2.0 percent YoY, the pace has slowed from the strong acceleration seen in late 2025. Meanwhile, the outlook for the property market during the remainder of 2026 may face challenges to recovery, consistent with the expected economic slowdown, still-fragile purchasing power, and high unsold housing inventory.
  • The ailing property market may place additional pressure on residential developers’ balance sheets. KResearch expects pre-financing loans for residential development in the banking system to contract by around -3.0 percent to -2.0 percent in 2026, compared with growth of 2.2 percent in 2025. Meanwhile, mortgage loans (post-financing loans) may continue to be constrained by the incomplete recovery in purchasing power, elevated household debt, and weakening debt-servicing capacity, leading to expectations that mortgage loans in 2026 may remain flat at around -0.5 percent to 0.0 percent.
  • Regarding the extension of LTV easing measures, KResearch views this as a positive factor that could help support the clearance of housing inventory and partially sustain the recovery of the real estate sector. However, any positive impact on mortgage loans in 2026 may remain limited, as the measure mainly reduces down-payment constraints and offers greater flexibility for certain buyer groups, particularly those with stable income and sufficient repayment capacity. The primary catalyst for reviving mortgage lending during the rest of the year will still depend largely on overall economic conditions and household income trends.

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