Retail sales in 2025 are projected to grow by 3.0%, the lowest rate in four years (Current Issue No.3561)

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Retail sales in 2024 reached approximately THB4.12 trillion, growing by 3.8 percent, slightly less than the KResearch forecast of 4.0 percent, due mainly to the slow recovery of consumer purchasing power and the impact of severe flooding in many areas, which caused widespread damage and led to more cautious spending.
For 2025, KResearch expects retail sales to grow by 3.0 percent, slowing from the previous year and marking the lowest rate in four years, with a total value of THB4.25 trillion. The slower growth is due to several potential risks, including the high cost of living, the fact that consumer purchasing power has yet to fully recover, and intense competition among businesses at the domestic level and the international through imports.
Meanwhile, Thailand’s economic stimulus measures, such as the Easy E-Receipt (E-Tax) scheme and the Phase 3 Digital Wallet handout, may boost retail sales slightly above initial projections. The modern trade sector is likely to benefit the most from these measures, particularly in essential goods like food or personal care products, and electrical appliances or smartphones that consumers plan to purchase or upgrade. Modern trade sales in 2025 are projected to grow by 4.8 percent, outpacing overall retail market growth.

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