KResearch views that retail sales in 2023 will see continual growth in line with economic conditions and consumer purchasing power. However, multiple challenges may persist. In 2023, the retail market is expected to expand by 2.8-3.6 percent YoY, thanks to the return of foreign tourists, rising product prices in line with production costs, the government's “Shop Dee Mee Khuen” (shop and payback) scheme, and increased spending prompted by the country’s upcoming general election. All of these factors will likely boost overall retail sales, especially in the first half of next year.
Regarding the extent of retail sales growth during the second half of 2023, attention must be paid to economic stimulus measures and policies imposed by the new government following the election. Meanwhile, businesses still need to bear increased costs amid elevated cost of living and consumer spending power that has yet to fully recover. Although the overall prospects look brighter, retailers still assume a cautious stance and face numerous challenges that will have varied effects on the retail business recovery in each segment.
Looking ahead, the retail landscape and business models will likely transform in line with the changing demographic structure as Thailand has become an aged society amid declining birth rate and technological disruption driving changes in consumer behaviour and future retail business operations.
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