China’s severe floods cause substantial damage to rice crops. Despite this potential advantage, Thai rice exports to China in 2024 are projected to contract by 2% YoY (Current Issue No.3514 Full Ed.)

• Southern China has faced major flooding since June 2024. The floods are expected to drag down the country’s rice production for 2024 by 3 percent YoY, or over 4 million tons, the worst loss in 20 years.
• China may gradually import rice to compensate for the damaged crops and to build up stockpiles in line with its food security policy. Its major source of rice imports will likely be Thailand as it coincides with the main rice harvest season. This could benefit Thailand, but the advantage may be limited due to competition with cheaper Vietnamese rice.
• Although the recent floods in China could trigger a surge in demand, Thai rice shipments to China for full-year 2024 are still expected to decline by 2 percent YoY. Meanwhile, rice prices may rise by 14 percent YoY, supporting a 12-percent YoY growth in export value.