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26 May 2023


Pressure mounts on Thai solar cells’ alleged circumvention of AD/CVD measures…Operators may adjust their business plans sooner; Thai exports to the US in 2023 may face slower-than-expected growth (Current Issue No.3412 Full Ed.)


        Since early 2023, pressure has mounted on allegations that Chinese solar panel makers have established production bases in four Asian countries, including Thailand, in order to circumvent anti-dumping and countervailing duty (AD/CVD) measures. This is due to different views of members of the US Congress regarding the US President's temporary restraining order, and the announcement of final determinations being deferred from early May to mid-August. As a result, US importers have shifted to new import sources like India, while some Chinese manufacturers in Vietnam also pledge to relocate their production bases to India.

        KResearch holds the view that some Chinese manufacturers in Thailand are subject to AD/CVD circumvention may adjust their production plans sooner than expected. This would put pressure on Thailand’s shipments of solar panels to the US in the last quarter of this year. As a result, the value of Thai solar panel exports to the US in 2023 is expected to grow only 30 percent, from the previous forecast of 57 percent.

        Despite signs of a slowdown, export growth remains good. This is because the US still needs solar panels to support power generation, while relying on solar cell imports at a time when investment to build a self-sustaining supply chain at home may require more time.

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