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22 Jan 2021

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Thai Exports, 2021: Numerous Challenges Foreseen, but Growth Projected at 3.0% after Contracting 6.0 in 2020 (Business Brief No.3908)

คะแนนเฉลี่ย
  • ​The COVID-19 pandemic continues to persist worldwide, including in Thailand. In spite of this, hopes for COVID-19 vaccines, lesser stringent lockdown measures than the previous round of the pandemic and economic stimulus measures introduced by many countries helped support Thai exports in December 2020 to grow for the first time in eight months at 4.71 percent, against the contraction of 3.65 percent reported for November 2020. Excluding oil, gold and arms, Thai shipment grew 5.81 percent in December 2020, suggesting That Thailand's outward trade has begun to improve. Details are as follows:    
  • Shipment of agricultural commodities and agro-processing products resumed growth of 2.1 percent YoY, bettering the shrinkage of 2.4 percent YoY recorded in November 2020. Exports of many agricultural commodities recorded steady growth from the previous months, such cassava products (+63.6% YoY) and rubber (+30.0% YoY), supported by stronger demand from China after its economy resumed growth of 6.5 percent YoY during 4Q20
  • Industrial product exports also expanded again at 6.7 percent YoY, versus the 2.9 YoY contraction reported for November 2020. Shipments of work-from-home products and electrical appliances continued to thrive. Exports related to the manufacturing sectors, such as plastic pallets and products increased 7.9 percent YoY, against the 3.5 percent contraction reported in November, chemicals rose 12.2 percent YoY, from the shrinkage of 4.1 percent in November, and integrated circuits grew 7.3 percent, from the contraction of 8.2 percent reported for November, suggesting that the global manufacturing sector has begun to bounce back.
  • Although some countries, especially in Europe, began to reimpose lockdown measures due the rising number of COVID-19 cases, this factor did not affect the Thai export sector. Thai shipments to major markets continued to grow from the previous months, such as Japan (14.8 percent YoY, from 5.4 percent in November), the US (15.7 percent YoY, from 15.4 percent YoY in November). In addition, shipments to China reverted to growth of 7.2 percent in line with its economic recovery.
  • Thailand's outward trade in December 2020 exhibited improving signs, supported by economic recoveries abroad, especially China. The Thai manufacturing sector began to bounce back, as well. In spite of this, Thai exports will like experience a number of risks ahead, including rising number of daily COVID-19 infections in many countries and uncertainties surround COVID-19 vaccines such as their supplies and side effects that may arise. Presently, only 0.5 percent of the global population has received COVID-19 vaccines, suggesting that vaccinations have begun in many countries. However, to achieve herd immunity through vaccinations will likely take a while. For this reason, the global economy will continue to face risk of the COVID-19 pandemic over the near term. Additionally, Thai exports will likely be pressured by a shortage of shipping containers and rising ocean freight rates, in particular during 1Q21. The Baht issue will become more complex after Thailand has been added to the Monitoring List of the US Department of Treasury for suspected currency manipulation. The persistent appreciation and volatility of the Baht will inevitably hurt Thai exports, going forward. Given this, we at KResearch expect that Thai exports may grow 3.0 percent in 2021.  


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