8 Nov 2024
International Economy
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1 Nov 2024
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14 Mar 2023
13 Mar 2023
The collapse of banks in the US has limited impact on Thailand. However, further developments merit close watch... Read more
10 Nov 2022
Preliminary voting results of the US midterm elections, November 8, 2022, show that Republicans have inched closer to a House majority, while control of the Senate hinges on a few tight races. Regardless of whether Democrats can still hold a majority in the Senate, or not when the official voting results are to be announced after December 6, 2022, given that votes for the remaining four seats are being counted (as of November 10, 2022, both parties had the same number of seats 48:48), the fact that Democrats have lost their majority in the House of Representatives in the 2022 midterm elections could affect Joe Biden's administration over the next two years. ... Read more
14 Dec 2021
Amid rising inflationary pressures, the Fed could increase the pace of its QE tapering and raise the policy rate much sooner than previously expected. The United States’ inflation rate continues to surge, with the headline inflation rate, gauged by the consumer price index soaring to a new high in almost 40 years at 6.8 percent YoY, in November 2021. Supply chain bottlenecks and labor shortages in the US, which are unlikely to be resolved in the near future, give the impression that the US inflation rate will remain high throughout the forthcoming period.... Read more
26 Apr 2021
KResearch projects that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will maintain its policy rate within the range of 0.0-0.25 percent at its meeting on April 27-28, 2021. While the US economy has shown signs of recovery following expedited vaccination efforts, with business activities able to return to normal amid the consistent release of stimulus packages, the labor market will likely need much more time to achieve full recovery per the Fed’s target. Overall, more than 17.4 million people have applied for unemployment benefits. While the COVID-19 situation has somewhat eased in the US, the risk of new outbreaks remains. Many countries continue to experience new outbreaks as well as the emergence of newer COVID-19 variants. Taking into account the fragile labor market and existing risk factors, the Fed is expected to maintain quantitative easing (QE) measures to support the US economic recovery.... Read more
17 Jul 2020
Over the course of the past two years that have been dominated by the US-China trade war, the US has been unable to reduce its trade deficit with China to the targeted level. Shifting the focus to Thailand, Thai export businesses incurred a net loss of USD 1.1 billion in related products. ... Read more
6 Jan 2020
The US-Iran tensions have ramped up after General Qasem Soleimani, the Iran’s top commander, was killed in Baghdad on January 3, 2020, shooting up the international benchmark Brent crude on January 6, 2020 by 7 percent as compared to the level registered at the end of 2019. This conflict is being closely monitored and unlikely to end soon. The extent of the impact on Thailand will depend on the level of oil price, and how long it will stay at such a high level. Based on our preliminary projections, if the Dubai crude oil price stays at USD80 per barrel for six months, it will affect Thailand’s inflation by 0.75 percentage points from the base case, pushing the headline inflation to 1.15-1.65 percent and cutting the country’s GDP by 0.08 percent. ... Read more
1 Aug 2019
As expected, the Federal Reserve (Fed) slashed its policy rate for the first time in over 10 years to a range of 2.00-2.25 percent at its meeting, July 30-31, 2019. However, no signs of another policy rate cut have been seen from the Fed Chair. The outcome of the latest FOMC meeting has disappointed investors and financial markets globally as they were expecting the Fed to be more dovish. Meanwhile, the Baht weakened to approximately THB30.85/USD, August 1, 2019.... Read more
28 Jun 2019
All eyes are on the G20 Summit, in particular a talk between the US and China, the world’s superpowers, to end the trade war that will last for a year in July 2019. Looking back, it is believed that the US and China knew that they would not benefit from the persistent trade war. A clear consequence of their trade dispute is now seen in rising prices of their imported products and this has hurt their consumers and manufacturers. The stances of the US and Chinese leaders in ending the trade war are based on political benefits and their popularity at home.... Read more
7 May 2019
The trade talks between the US and China last week did not produce a satisfactory outcome either side. Moreover, the US President Donald Trump announced plans to further raise tariffs on USD200 billion of Chinese goods from 10 to 25 percent starting Friday, May 10. The latest move puts greater pressure on world trade and reflects Washington’s effort to force Beijing to pursue negotiation guidelines in order for both sides to reach a mutually-satisfying agreement and stop the trade war by the end of 2019.... Read more
29 Apr 2019
KResearch expects the Federal Reserve to maintain the policy rate at 2.25-2.50 percent during the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on April 30-May 1, 2019. The Fed’s hint at easing monetary policy will sustain the US economic growth in the remainder of this year. During 2Q19 and 3Q19, the US economy will continue to encounter risk factors which may drag the economic momentum, prompting the Fed to keep the policy rate unchanged to support the continuous expansion of the US economy at least until the end of this year. Nonetheless, the Fed also suggested that it would closely monitor the US economic health and employ the data dependent approach. Although the market thinks it is possible for the Fed to consider cutting the policy rate by 0.25 percentage points before the end of 2019, the Fed is unlikely to signal the rate cut in the near future. This is because the interest rate reduction may be interpreted by the market as the US economy is entering the cycle of economic slowdown in the future.... Read more
7 Nov 2018
At present, the fast-paced business world is fuelled largely by digital disruption. The tourism and hospitality business is one of the industries that has experienced a rapid evolution in the past decade, with Online Travel Agencies (OTAs) emerging to become a force to be reckoned with. The OTA business is driven by key global players which are poised to increase their presence and attach greater importance to the Asian region. The evidence is the value of merger and acquisition deals by the two OTA juggernauts in the Asian region; it represents 41 percent of their global M&As worth THB440 billion. ... Read more