22 Sep 2021
International Economy
Globally, the COVID-19 crisis has begun to ease, particularly in developed countries. As a result, their economies have substantially bounced back to pre-pandemic levels. Additionally, their labor markets have almost returned to normalcy. Concurrently, signs of increased inflationary pressures have led to important changes in global financial markets, including ASEAN, after the US Federal Reserve (Fed)’s signals that it may begin its QE tapering program towards the 2021 year-end, which would prompt it to raise the Fed Funds rate probably during 3Q22. Likewise, the European Central Bank (ECB) has sent signals at its latest meeting that it would cut back its bond-buying program. The Bank of Korea (BOK) was among the first central banks that began hiking its policy rate at its monetary policy committee meeting held in August 2021 after its inflation hit a 9-year high of 2.6 percent in August 2021, and household debt skyrocketed above 100 percent of the country’s GDP because of the COVID-19 pandemic. Changes in monetary policy stances of the US Fed, ECB and BOK may reflect the eminent changes in monetary policies within ASEAN soon. ... Read more
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26 Jun 2019
The ASEAN Summit 2019 ended with members agreeing to conclude the talks for the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) framework by 2019. Thailand should take this opportunity as the ASEAN Chair to act as the facilitator to bridge the differences among members to push for the success of the RCEP trade liberalization. RCEP members include ten ASEAN countries and the other six negotiating partners (Plus 6) including China, Japan, South Korea, India, Australia and New Zealand). ... Read more
26 Jul 2018
In 2018, the trade war provoked by the US may not produce significant repercussions on Thailand, given that the measures to impose new tariffs on solar panels, large washing machines, iron and aluminum since the beginning of the year has not involved considerable value. Despite, the first round of new tariffs worth USD50 billion and the second round to be collected in the remainder of this year, Thailand’s export opportunity loss amounts to only USD280-420 million. However, ongoing tensions that will be underlined with another USD200 billion of tariffs on Chinese goods will very likely be hurtful for Thai exports and business sectors next year. In 2019, trade conflicts between the US and China will surely intensify. KResearch believes this trade war will persist throughout the year. Due to the tariffs of USD50 billion and USD200 billion, net loss of Thai exports in 2019 will total around USD2.4-2.9 billion, or be equal to 0.5-0.6 percent of our GDP. Considering the list of goods that has been announced by the US, Thai goods may be classified into three groups: 1) Goods that could replace Chinese goods in the US market, e.g. plastics, integrated circuit boards and hard disk drives; 2) Electric and electronic goods (E&E) – E&E parts and components will be losers as they are part of the supply chain of China’s exports, while E&E consumer products that market in ASEAN will risk losing their markets to China; and 3) Iron products, also facing competition from China in ASEAN. ... Read more
26 Dec 2017
Thai exports to ASEAN-5 (Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, the Philippines and Brunei) account for 59.3 percent of our total exports to the entire AS... Read more
6 Mar 2017
Growth is evident in Thailand's shipments to Vietnam for 2016; the 5.9-percent YoY increase we achieved represents the fourth consecutive year of p... Read more
6 Jan 2015
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