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11 Jan 2008

Financial Markets

MPC Meeting on Jan 16, 2008: Interest Rate Likely to Stand Pat (Business Brief No.2098)

KASIKORN RESEARCH CENTER (KResearch) forecasts that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Bank of Thailand may resolve to keep the 1-day R/P rate unchanged at 3.25 percent at this year's first meeting slated for January 16, 2008.

Thai policymakers may give greater weight to accelerating inflation in 2008 compared to the year before, than to other factors, which would be in line with their monetary policy that is based on an inflation targeting framework. The MPC is expected to closely monitor various risk factors both at home and abroad including the domestic political situation, escalating global oil prices and the apparent global economic slowdown, especially in the US, which has been plagued by their sub-prime mortgage malaise.

Although these matters would be seen to be prescient to the authorities adopting a tightened interest rate stance, much will still depend on how far consumer confidence and private investment pick up this year, as hoped for by many.

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