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2 Jan 2024

Financial Markets

The Baht strengthened while the SET surged in the final week of 2023


        The Thai stock market still stood above 1,400 points during the final week of the year. Overall, the SET rose over-week, boosted by the expectations about the Fed’s rate cuts next year, better-than-expected Thailand’s export data in November 2023, institutional investors’ purchases and year-end window dressing. However, some investors slowed their investment ahead of the New Year holiday, resulting in a thin transaction volume. Finance stocks dropped sharply at the end of the week in contrary to other sectors, due to concerns over the impacts of responsible lending guidelines, which will come into force early next year.      
        On Thursday, December 28, 2023, the SET closed at 1,415.85 points, up 0.77% over-week. The average daily trading value was THB35,725.20 million, down 0.43% over-week. The mai closed at 411.61 points, up 0.61% over-week.
        As for the movement of the Thai stock market in 2023, The SET index closed at 1,415.85 points towards the end of 2023, down 15.15% from 1,668.66 points reported for the end of 2022. The SET index gradually dropped from the beginning of the year amid negative factors at home and abroad, including concerns over the Fed’s tightening monetary policy, US banking issues, domestic political issues, tensions in Israel, rising US bond yields and signs of a slow recovery in the domestic economy. The SET hit a 3-year low of 1,354.73 points around mid-December before recovering somewhat at the end of the year, supported by the Fed’s signals of the end of its rate hike cycle and three more rate cuts over the coming next year.  
        For January 2-5, 2024, KSecurities expects the SET to have support at 1,400 and 1,380 points, but resistance at 1,430 and 1,450 points, respectively. KResearch views that key matters to watch are Thailand’s December CPI and foreign fund flows. The US economic data that warrant close monitoring include December Manufacturing and Services ISM/PMI, ADP Employment Report, Non-farm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate, FOMC minutes,  plus Weekly Jobless Claims. Close attention must also be paid to December PMI of China, Eurozone and Japan, plus Eurozone’s December CPI.

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Financial Markets