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25 Jul 2024

Econ Digest

FOMC meeting, July 30-31, 2024: Fed is expected to signal a rate cut at its September 2024 meeting with a total of two rate cuts anticipated this year.

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        At the upcoming FOMC meeting on July 30-31, the Fed is expected to maintain the policy rate at 5.25-5.50%, but it may signal a rate cut in the September meeting with the latest inflation and labor market figures showing a continued weakening trend. The US headline inflation in June fell to 3.0%YoY, the lowest in a year while the labor market reflected a continued slowdown. According to Bloomberg's Fed Funds Future on July 24, 2024, the market saw a 95.5% probability that the Fed will cut the interest rate at the September meeting.

        KResearch expects the Fed to cut the policy rate twice during 2024, in September and December. However, the timing of future rate cuts will likely hinge on inflation and economic data. If the US inflation rate and economic figures grow more slowly than previously estimated, the Fed may consider three policy rate cuts in 2024, which is in line with market expectations.

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