Thailand’s foreign tourist arrivals in 2026 expected to contract less than previously forecast, supported by a year-end recovery

• ​If the Middle East conflict does not escalate to the point of disrupting international travel, this could support Thailand's foreign tourist arrivals in the remainder of 2026, particularly from the Middle East and Europe.
• However, downside risks remain. KResearch expects foreign tourist arrivals to Thailand to decline by 4.9% YoY to 31.36 million in 2026, which is an upward revision from the previous forecast of 30 million. Revenue from foreign tourists is projected to reach around THB 1.54 trillion, down 3.2% YoY.

 
Multiple factors have contributed to the decline in foreign tourist arrivals to Thailand. According to data from the Ministry of Tourism and Sports, Thailand welcomed 19.15 million foreign tourists between January 1 and August 8, 2026, representing a 2.9% YoY contraction. The decline was driven by several factors, including the conflict in the Middle East in late February 2026, intensifying international tourism competition, and economic challenges in certain countries that affected overseas travel plans.

For the remainder of 2026, KResearch expects the outlook for Thailand's foreign tourist market to show slight improvement.
 

• If the conflict in the Middle East does not escalate further and no airspace closures occur, tourists from both the Middle East and Europe are likely to resume travel more actively during the last quarter of the year, which is the peak travel season for European visitors. 

• Airfares on many routes have started to decline from the elevated levels seen during the Middle East conflict, although they remain above last year's average. Many airlines have also resumed promotional campaigns to stimulate travel demand.

• International conferences and global music festivals scheduled for the final quarter of 2026 may help support tourism. Thailand will host the 2026 IMF-World Bank Group Annual Meetings and an electronic dance music festival (EDM), Tomorrowland Thailand. In addition, annual tourism promotion activities such as New Year celebrations will continue to support visitor arrivals.

 
Nevertheless, Thailand's foreign tourism market remains vulnerable to several downside risks going forward.
 

• Competition in the tourism sector and changing tourist behavior have led to a decrease in foreign tourists visiting Thailand, while several competing destinations continue to record growth. Although Thailand still has a higher number of foreign tourists than many countries in the region, changing tourist behavior and intensifying competition have caused Thailand to face a decline in tourist numbers. Meanwhile, foreign visitor numbers continue to grow in countries such as Vietnam, Malaysia, and Indonesia.

 
Key tourist markets are increasingly choosing alternative destinations. For example, although the numbers remain relatively small, Malaysian tourist arrivals to Japan and Indonesia continue to grow, while arrivals in Thailand have declined. Meanwhile, Chinese tourist arrivals to Thailand are still increasing, but more Chinese tourists are traveling to South Korea and Vietnam than to Thailand.

• Economic constraints in many countries have caused tourists to alter their travel plans and spending behavior. Tourists are increasingly choosing destinations that align with their budgets and perceived value. For example:

• Problems in South Korea's stock market have affected the wealth of certain groups of people, potentially disrupting overseas travel plans. South Korean outbound travel declined by 5.9% YoY during June-July 2026. South Korea is Thailand's fifth-largest tourism market. This issue may add further pressure, as South Korean arrivals to Thailand have been declining continuously since January 2025 and have yet to recover, partly due to a shift in travel destinations.

• Volatility in the Indonesian rupiah has reduced outbound travel among Indonesian tourists, including travel to Thailand. During the first half of 2026, Indonesian outbound tourism fell by 2.4% YoY. Indonesian visitors account for approximately 2% of total foreign tourist arrivals to Thailand. In the first seven months of 2026, Indonesian tourist arrivals to Thailand declined by 23.2% YoY due to several factors, including the continued depreciation of the rupiah. Compared with the same period last year (as of August 5, 2026), the Indonesian rupiah had weakened by approximately 7% against the Baht. Looking ahead, continued currency volatility may further affect Indonesian arrivals to Thailand during the remainder of the year.

• Airline flight schedules to Thailand continue to indicate weakness on some routes. Advance flight schedules to Thailand for August-November 2026, as of July 31, 2026, were revised down by 2.1% as compared with July 16, 2026, reflecting elevated uncertainty. Most of the reductions were in flights from the Asia-Pacific region, including India, Indonesia, and South Korea, consistent with declining tourist arrival trends. In contrast, flight capacity from some markets, such as Israel, has increased, while flight schedules from several European countries remain largely unchanged.

• Geopolitical issues remain uncertain. Both the Middle East conflict and the Russia-Ukraine war, although still relatively contained, continue to affect traveler confidence and travel plans among certain groups, particularly tourists from the Middle East.

 
KResearch forecasts that foreign tourist arrivals to Thailand in 2026 will reach approximately 31.36 million, representing a 4.9% contraction, an improvement from its previous forecast of 30 million made in April 2026. Tourists from Europe and the Middle East are expected to travel more actively during the remainder of the year, provided that the Middle East situation does not significantly disrupt travel.
 
The markets of greatest concern, which are expected to continue declining, are largely short-haul markets that are important to Thailand, including South Korea, Malaysia, India, and Indonesia. Meanwhile, Chinese tourist arrivals to Thailand are expected to continue growing but at a slower pace than earlier in 2026.

Tourism revenue from international visitors in 2026 is projected to reach approximately THB1.54 trillion, a decline of 3.1% from 2025. Average spending per tourist per trip is expected to be around THB49,000, up 2% from 2025.

Overall spending per tourist per trip remains relatively stable. This is because the majority of tourists are middle-income tourists; tourists are becoming more cautious in their spending behavior, including reducing purchases of gifts and souvenirs. Community-based tourism is also gaining greater popularity as travelers seek meaningful local experiences that offer good value for money.

However, the proportion of tourists whose spending per trip exceeds the average has increased, compared with the pre-COVID period. This group now accounts for around 53% of total foreign tourist arrivals. Most are long-haul travelers from Europe, the Americas, and the Middle East, as well as Asia-Pacific markets such as Australia, New Zealand, and China. This represents a positive development as compared with the pre-COVID period, when the proportion was only around 30%. Tourists whose spending per trip is below the average are primarily short-haul travelers from Asia, including Malaysia, India, and South Korea.

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