Cross-border and transit trade in 4M24 contracted by 1.5% YoY; full-year growth projected at 0.6% (Current Issue No.3498 Full Ed.)

• Thailand's cross-border and transit trade in 4M24 reached THB 326 billion, falling by 1.5 percent YoY. The decline was attributed to the high base of the previous year, volatile weather conditions adversely impacting Thai durian production, and relocation of production bases to Vietnam by some solar cell manufacturers, resulting in reduced exports of such product. Additional factors included a decline in shipments of technology products such as computers, electronic circuit boards, printed circuit boards, and electrical appliances, as well as limited purchasing power in neighboring countries affected by political and economic problems.
• In 2H24, it is expected that the country’s cross-border and transit trade will see improvement compared to 1H24, thanks to a gradual decline in high base effect and a resumption of exports to Myanmar following the reopening of border checkpoints. Other factors behind the anticipated uptick include rising durian prices boosting Thai durian shipments to China, and continued strengthening of key exports such as HDDs and rubber to various markets. KResearch projects that Thailand's border and transit trade for full-year 2024 will expand by 0.6 percent, amounting to THB 986 billion.