18 Sep 2023 International Economy Fed is expected to hold its policy rate steady at 5.25-5.50 percent at the FOMC meeting on September 19-20, 2023 (Business Brief No.4016 Full Ed.) คะแนนเฉลี่ย คะแนนเฉลี่ย 5 stars 4 stars 3 stars 2 stars 1 star At the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting slated for September 19-20, 2023, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) is likely to keep its policy rate unchanged, pending assessment of the inflation outlook and the labor market going forward. Although headline inflation in the US has decelerated, it remains at a high level. Meanwhile, the robust labor market has shown signs of slowing down to a more typical level. Additionally, at the upcoming FOMC meeting, the Fed will also release economic projections and interest rate forecasts (Fed Dot Plot), which are key issues to monitor. Nonetheless, KResearch holds the view that the Fed may raise the policy rate one last time by the end of 2023, although the probability of that is relatively low. This is based on the conditions that future inflation declines gradually and remains above the target level, while the US labor market still does not slow down as anticipated. However, KResearch gives more weight to the scenario that the Fed may pause its policy rate hikes in this economic cycle and maintain the rate at 5.25-5.50 percent until at least the end of this year, amid slowing inflation and labor market. Looking ahead, the Fed may consider cutting the policy rate in the second half of 2024 if the US economy suffers a substantial slowdown. Even though the market sees a lower possibility that the US will slip into recession or greater probability that the US will be on course for a soft landing, US economic growth is expected to drop significantly next year, possibly below 1.0 percent. This could lead the Fed to adopt accommodative monetary policy to drive US economic expansion going forward. In short, the Fed’s policy rate path will mainly depend on economic and inflation data. Amid uncertainty surrounding US monetary policy, the Baht is likely to remain volatile going forward. If the Fed raises its policy rate more than expected, or keeps the rate unchanged longer than anticipated, the Baht could face pressure from a strengthening US Dollar. View full article Login / Register Or Enter the code from the poll Annotation This research paper is published for general public. It is made up of various sources. Trustworthy, but the company can not authenticate. reliability The information may be changed at any time without prior notice. Data users need to be careful about the use of information. The Company will not be liable to any user or person for any damages arising from such use. The information in this report does not constitute an offer. Or advice on business decisions Anyhow. International Economy Fed Related Analysis View all 14 Mar 2018 International Economy Thailand must brace for trade disputes between the US, EU and China, etc. (Current Issue No. 2905) The US is pressing ahead with trade measures against trade partners globally. In addition to their new ‘safeguard tariffs’ on imported solar panels and large washing machines imposed early in 2018, and more recently on imported steel and aluminum, the US is now preparing to implement protectionist measures against Chinese products valued at around USD60 billion. This direction will likely add significant pressure to global trade, thus, KResearch views that all eyes should be closely kept on negotiations between the US and EU, both being among the largest economies in the world. Details on those negotiations are expected to be released before the relevant ‘safeguard tariffs’ on steel and aluminum become effective at the end of next week. If the EU and China are exempted from these new tariffs, prevailing anxiety will ease. But to the contrary, without such exemptions, China and the EU may opt to implement their own trade protectionist measures against the US, as well. This situation would likely escalate into further actions and reactions, incurring significant damage to trade that could spill over to other regions of the world.... Read more 0 KB 0 KB 2 Mar 2018 International Economy Planned New US Tariffs on Metal Imports Triggering More Intense Trade Protectionism (Current Issue No. 2903) Throughout 2018, the US administration’s continual pursuit of protectionist trade measures has tended to increase volatility in global trade. Most recently, President Donald Trump announced that new “safeguard” tariffs would be imposed on steel and aluminum imports at 25 percent and 10 percent, respectively. Although no details have been released yet, it seems undeniable that trade with the US will become difficult, going forward.... Read more 0 KB 0 KB 6 Mar 2018 International Economy China’s 2018 Economic Targets Reflect Slower Economic Growth, while Monetary and Fiscal Policies are Still Being Used to Sustain Economic Growth Ahead (Business Brief No.3730) All eyes were on the National People’s Congress, March 5, 2018, because the ruling Communist Party proposed constitutional a... Read more 0 KB 0 KB 26 Jan 2018 International Economy Fed Meeting Expected to Maintain Rate Leaving Room for Increasing Rate Later (Business Brief No.3725) KResearch expects the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to maintain their policy rate at 1.25-1.50 percent during their first round of meeting o... Read more 0 KB 0 KB 26 Dec 2017 International Economy The Philippines: Rising Market of ASEAN (Current Issue No. 2887 Full Ed.) Thai exports to ASEAN-5 (Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, the Philippines and Brunei) account for 59.3 percent of our total exports to the entire AS... Read more 0 KB 0 KB 19 Dec 2017 International Economy Chinese Economy Continues Momentum to Yearend Growth next year inches toward balance, Focus on Reforms (Business Brief No.3719) China's latest economic indicators show that the Chinese economy has maintained momentum. Although China’s domestic eco... Read more 0 KB 0 KB View all