KResearch revises up Thailand’s 2026 GDP forecast to 2.0% from 1.2% following stronger-than-expected 1Q26 GDP and positive impact from the THB 400 billion emergency loan decree (Business Brief No.4267 Full Ed.)

•    Thailand’s economy expanded by a stronger-than-expected 2.8 percent YoY and 0.7 percent QoQ in 1Q26, driven by private and public investment, as well as private and public consumption. Together, these factors contributed 4.3 percent to first-quarter GDP growth. Meanwhile, stronger-than-expected exports and private investment were partly offset by a sharp rise in imports of 25.4 percent YoY. In addition, the Thai economy received further support from inventory levels that were higher than the same period last year, consistent with the rebound in industrial production during the first quarter and increased agricultural output due to favorable weather conditions.
•    Amid the fallout from the Middle East conflict, KResearch had previously projected Thailand’s economy to grow within a range of 0.8–1.2 percent in 2026 (as of April 2026), reflecting the effects of higher energy prices and a slowdown in the tourism sector. However, with 1Q26 GDP outperforming expectations, stronger momentum in private investment than previously assessed, and additional support from the 400-billion-baht emergency loan decree, KResearch has upwardly revised its 2026 GDP growth forecast to 2.0 percent from 1.2 percent.

•    Nevertheless, Thailand’s trade surplus in 2026 is expected to narrow more significantly than previously estimated and compared to the previous year. Exports in 2026 are now projected to grow by 8.2 percent, revised upward from the previous forecast, supported mainly by electronics shipments. The revised projection also incorporates risks from potential US trade measures, including possible import tariffs on Thai products under Section 301 beginning in the second half of 2026 onwards. Meanwhile, imports in 2026 are projected to surge by 13.9 percent, in line with the expansion in exports and private investment. In addition, foreign tourist arrivals in 2026 are expected to decline to around 30 million from the previous estimate of 31.5 million, as jet fuel prices are likely to remain elevated and continue pressuring airline costs globally, leading to higher airfares and weaker travel confidence, particularly among long-haul travelers.