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19 Aug 2024

Thai Economy

Thai economy expanded by 2.3% YoY in 2Q24; full-year 2024 growth forecast of KResearch remains at 2.6%, depending on government economic measures. (Business Brief No.4079 Full Ed.)

คะแนนเฉลี่ย

Thai economy expanded by 2.3% YoY in 2Q24; full-year 2024 growth forecast of KResearch remains at 2.6%, depending on government economic measures.

  • Thailand’s economy grew by 2.3 percent YoY in 2Q24, driven by a higher trade surplus due to better-than-expected exports, coupled with robust private consumption. Government spending remained below expectations, especially public investment which continued to contract despite accelerated budgetary disbursements compared to the previous quarter, while public consumption expanded less than anticipated. Additionally, private investment contracted more than expected, particularly in the construction and automotive sectors. As a result, investment outlook for 2024 is less promising than previously anticipated.
  • The uncertainty surrounding Thailand’s economic direction in 2H24 hinges on government economic measures and the 2025 fiscal budget. If the scale of economic stimulus measures remains largely unchanged compared to the digital wallet handout scheme, and if the 2025 fiscal budget bill is enacted by October 1, 2024, the country’s economy is expected to expand by 2.6 percent this year. However, if government stimulus measures are delayed and no alternative measures are introduced in 4Q24, and if the enactment of the 2025 budget bill is delayed by more than one month, Thailand’s economic outlook for 2024 may face increased downside risks, with a lower bound estimate of 2.2 percent. Thus far, the likelihood of this scenario remains low.

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Thai Economy

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