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14 Nov 2018

Thai Economy

3-month Expected KR-ECI Improves Households Are Optimistic toward Future Income


  • ​The 3-month Expected KR-ECI edged up slightly to 46.9 in October over 46.5 reported for September. This isbecause households were more optimistic toward income and employment over the next three months (November 2018 - January 2019) partly as a result of the fact that non-farm households that will get annual paid rises while agricultural households will earn more from the upcoming harvest season.
  • Meanwhile, KR-ECI stood at 45.3 in October, which was almost on a par with 45.2 recorded for September. The KR-ECI Component for household debt shows that households were less concerned about debt payments in October partly because they spent less via credit card. However, they were increasingly anxious about expenditures (excluding debt) due partly to a seasonal factor, i.e., long public holidays induced them to spend more.    
  • KResearch is of the view that household economic conditions will gradually improve over the final two months of 2018 (November-December) as households may get paid rises while their expenditures will likely decline, given that domestic energy prices have gradually dropped in line with global crude oil prices. Nevertheless, close attention must be paid to agricultural prices in November because growing supplies may dent farm income.  

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