Display mode (Doesn't show in master page preview)

20 Feb 2025

Thai Economy

The MPC is expected to maintain the policy rate at its February 26 meeting and cut the rate 1-2 times during the rest of this year, with the weight given primarily to domestic factors (Business Brief No.4131 Full Ed.)

คะแนนเฉลี่ย
  • At its meeting on February 26, 2025, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will likely maintain its policy rate at 2.25 percent while adopting a wait-and-see approach regarding the Thai economy amidst high uncertainties, particularly from the US import tariff policy. Meanwhile, the domestic economy in the first half of this year is expected to expand almost on par with the 3.2-percent YoY growth reported for 4Q24, supported by economic stimulus measures, accelerated exports, and government budget disbursements.
  • KResearch expects the MPC to cut its policy rate 1-2 times later in 2025, with the weight given primarily to domestic economic risks and financial stability. The delayed trend of global monetary policy easing influenced by the Fed may not be the main factor that the MPC considers.
  • The Thai economy may face heightened risks from internal and external factors, especially in the second half of 2025. This year, Thai exports may slow due to the impact of renewed trade wars. Meanwhile, the domestic economy may face pressures from the manufacturing sector, which has yet to recover, and slowing momentum in household spending amidst economic uncertainties and high household debt. Additionally, the government’s economic stimulus measures are expected to provide only limited, short-term support for household spending.

View full article


Thai Economy