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24 Jul 2026

Thai Economy

Thailand’s trade deficit is poised to reach a record high in 2026 as imports may grow faster than expected (Business Brief No.4281 Full Ed.)

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  • Thailand’s exports rose 20.8 percent YoY in June 2026, with more than half of the growth driven by electronics shipments, which surged 66.0 percent YoY. The expansion was led by computers and parts, including HDDs, and telecom equipment, supported by strong global demand from the AI and data center sectors. Some of these products also continue to benefit from US tariff exemptions.
  • The US is pressing ahead with additional trade restrictions, which are expected to place greater pressure on Thai exports to the US beginning in the second half of 2026. While import tariffs under Section 301 relating to forced labor are expected to have only a limited impact on Thai exports, the proposed Section 301 investigation into structural excess capacity remains a key risk that warrants close monitoring, as it could pose a more significant threat to Thailand’s shipments to the US in the period ahead.
  • KResearch has revised up its 2026 growth forecasts for Thai exports to 14.0 percent from 8.2 percent and for Thai imports to 27.0 percent from 13.9 percent. As a result, Thailand’s customs-basis trade deficit is now expected to reach a record high in 2026.

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Thai Economy