• Thailand’s economy in 2Q26 grew by 1.9 percent YoY and contracted by 0.2 percent QoQ. Although this was better than KResearch’s forecast, it does not materially change our view on Thailand’s economic outlook, as the stronger-than-expected performance was driven largely by inventory accumulation. Meanwhile, momentum from other economic components weakened, with private investment remaining the key growth driver.
• KResearch maintains its 2026 Thai economic growth forecast at 2.0 percent, despite stronger-than-expected GDP growth in 2Q26, and continues to expect growth in 2H26 to decelerate from the 2.4-percent expansion recorded in 1H26. While economic activity is likely to recover in 3Q26, supported by fiscal stimulus measures, growth is expected to soften again in 4Q26 amid weakening momentum in private consumption, private investment, and exports.
• For the remainder of this year, key downside risks are likely shifting from the impacts of the Middle East conflict towards external sector headwinds and heightened uncertainties surrounding US trade policy. In particular, significant scrutiny lies in investigations into structural overcapacity and audits targeting transshipment practices. The impact of these risks will depend on the details of forthcoming US measures and the outcome of Thailand’s trade negotiations, with clearer effects expected to emerge in 2027.
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