Thailand’s inflation in April 2026 turned positive for the first time in 13 months, affected by the Middle East conflict (Business Brief No.4265 Full Ed.)

•    Thailand’s headline inflation in April 2026 turned positive for the first time in more than a year at 2.89 percent YoY, driven by the impacts of the Middle East conflict. Energy prices increased by 18.9 percent YoY, as the government gradually adjusted domestic fuel prices to align with global market prices. Furthermore, higher energy and raw material costs have begun to pass through to other product categories more significantly, such as public transportation fares, vegetables, and fruits.
•    In 2026, headline inflation is expected to average 3.4 percent because of the potential gradual pass-through of rising costs to consumer prices. The primary pressure is likely to stem from an upward trend in energy and agricultural prices, compounded by risks associated with the onset of El Niño conditions. Meanwhile, prices of items in the core inflation basket, once increased, are likely to remain sticky thereafter.