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25 Oct 2023

Thai Economy

Thai exports in September 2023 grew for the second consecutive month at 2.1% YoY, but close attention must be paid to the increased geopolitical risk to the global economy (Business Brief No.4022 Full Ed.)


        In September 2023, Thailand’s outward trade grew for the second consecutive month at 2.1 percent YoY. Thanks to the steady growth in fruit shipments to China, the overall Thai exports to China surged 14.4 percent YoY. Gem and jewelry exports (including gold) recorded substantial growth, driven partly by a short-term factor, i.e., the Bangkok Gems and Jewelry Fair, organized by the Ministry of Commerce during this period. Price-related factors may help support Thai gold exports, going forward.
        We at KResearch, however, are of the view that Thai shipments during the rest of 2023 may continue to be pressured by the sluggish global trade amid numerous uncertainties surrounding the global economy, including escalating tensions stemming from Israel-Hamas and Russia-Ukraine conflicts. There are also many downside risks that may dampen Thai exports, such as forex volatility and erratic weather conditions. Nevertheless, the low base of 4Q22 and export growth reported for August-September 2023 may help support Thai shipments during the remainder of 2023.
        Given this, KResearch views that Thai exports may contract at 2.5 percent during 2023. However, Thai shipments grow steadily during the rest of 2023, they may shrink at a slower rate than our prior estimate. 

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Thai Economy