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8 Sep 2026

Thai Economy

Thai inflation projected at 1.8% in 2026, with inflationary pressures expected to build in Q4 (Business Brief No.4287 Full Ed.)

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  • Thailand’s headline inflation rose to 2.5 percent YoY in August 2026, in line with KResearch’s forecast. Energy prices increased by 8.6 percent YoY, driven by higher global oil prices following renewed tensions in the Middle East. Cost pass-through also became more evident and broadened across a wider range of consumer goods.
  • KResearch maintains its 2026 headline inflation forecast at 1.8 percent, as weak consumer purchasing power is expected to continue limiting the pass-through of higher production costs despite ongoing upward price pressures.
  • Inflation is expected to accelerate in the fourth quarter of 2026, supported by persistently elevated energy prices amid prolonged geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East, together with rising agricultural and food prices as El Niño is expected to intensify into a Super El Niño from the final quarter of 2026 through early 2027.

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Thai Economy