12 Oct 2023 International Economy Vietnam’s economy projected to grow 4.8-5.0% in 2023, lower than its government’s target of 6.0% (Business Brief No.4020) คะแนนเฉลี่ย คะแนนเฉลี่ย 5 stars 4 stars 3 stars 2 stars 1 star We at KResearch project that Vietnam's GDP growth will surge to 6.3-7.0 percent during 4Q23, thus allowing for its overall economy to expand at 4.8-5.0 percent for 2023. Vietnam’s key economic drivers in 4Q23 included the rebound in its export sector and accelerated public spending. However, roll over risks of real estate corporate bonds will remain the downside risk of Vietnam’s economy until at least the end of 2024. KResearch views that Vietnam's central bank will continue to hold its policy rate for at least another three months amid the Fed's ongoing tightening cycle even as Vietnam’s core inflation has steadily declined, and headline inflation has remained below the official target of 4.5 percent. As an expected hike in the Fed Funds rate will likely result in increased capital outflows from Vietnam and pressure the Dong to weaken, KResearch views that Vietnam’s central bank will continue to monitor the situation and may not cut its policy rate over the next three months. Meanwhile, KResearch projects that the value of Thai exports to Vietnam will increase by 2.7 percent YoY in 4Q23. However, the figure may contract 11.7 percent YoY during 2023 . The increase in Thai shipments to Vietnam in 4Q23 may be due to the low base of the previous year, and rising crude oil prices amid the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict. Currently, refined petroleum products represent Thailand’s second largest export category to Vietnam. Factors that may pressure Thai shipments to Vietnam in 4Q23 may include the decline in Thai polymer exports to Vietnam after a Thai company has invested in the petrochemical complex in Vietnam to produce plastic pallets there. Its polymer manufacturing facility began operations in the second half of 2023, and it is expected that Thai polymer exports will decline steadily until mid-2024. Presently, plastic pallets represent Thailand’s fourth largest export category to Vietnam. View full article Login / Register Or Enter the code from the poll Annotation This research paper is published for general public. It is made up of various sources. Trustworthy, but the company can not authenticate. reliability The information may be changed at any time without prior notice. Data users need to be careful about the use of information. The Company will not be liable to any user or person for any damages arising from such use. The information in this report does not constitute an offer. Or advice on business decisions Anyhow. International Economy CLMVVietnam Related Analysis View all 14 Mar 2018 International Economy Thailand must brace for trade disputes between the US, EU and China, etc. (Current Issue No. 2905) The US is pressing ahead with trade measures against trade partners globally. In addition to their new ‘safeguard tariffs’ on imported solar panels and large washing machines imposed early in 2018, and more recently on imported steel and aluminum, the US is now preparing to implement protectionist measures against Chinese products valued at around USD60 billion. This direction will likely add significant pressure to global trade, thus, KResearch views that all eyes should be closely kept on negotiations between the US and EU, both being among the largest economies in the world. Details on those negotiations are expected to be released before the relevant ‘safeguard tariffs’ on steel and aluminum become effective at the end of next week. If the EU and China are exempted from these new tariffs, prevailing anxiety will ease. But to the contrary, without such exemptions, China and the EU may opt to implement their own trade protectionist measures against the US, as well. This situation would likely escalate into further actions and reactions, incurring significant damage to trade that could spill over to other regions of the world.... Read more 0 KB 0 KB 2 Mar 2018 International Economy Planned New US Tariffs on Metal Imports Triggering More Intense Trade Protectionism (Current Issue No. 2903) Throughout 2018, the US administration’s continual pursuit of protectionist trade measures has tended to increase volatility in global trade. Most recently, President Donald Trump announced that new “safeguard” tariffs would be imposed on steel and aluminum imports at 25 percent and 10 percent, respectively. Although no details have been released yet, it seems undeniable that trade with the US will become difficult, going forward.... Read more 0 KB 0 KB 6 Mar 2018 International Economy China’s 2018 Economic Targets Reflect Slower Economic Growth, while Monetary and Fiscal Policies are Still Being Used to Sustain Economic Growth Ahead (Business Brief No.3730) All eyes were on the National People’s Congress, March 5, 2018, because the ruling Communist Party proposed constitutional a... Read more 0 KB 0 KB 26 Jan 2018 International Economy Fed Meeting Expected to Maintain Rate Leaving Room for Increasing Rate Later (Business Brief No.3725) KResearch expects the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to maintain their policy rate at 1.25-1.50 percent during their first round of meeting o... Read more 0 KB 0 KB 26 Dec 2017 International Economy The Philippines: Rising Market of ASEAN (Current Issue No. 2887 Full Ed.) Thai exports to ASEAN-5 (Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, the Philippines and Brunei) account for 59.3 percent of our total exports to the entire AS... Read more 0 KB 0 KB 19 Dec 2017 International Economy Chinese Economy Continues Momentum to Yearend Growth next year inches toward balance, Focus on Reforms (Business Brief No.3719) China's latest economic indicators show that the Chinese economy has maintained momentum. Although China’s domestic eco... Read more 0 KB 0 KB View all