29 Nov 2022
International Economy
Regarding the 33rd Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit hosted by Thailand, the French leader was officially invited as a special guest of the Thai government to attend the forum. During his visit to Thailand, marking the first such visit in 16 years, French President Emmanuel Macron and the Prime Minister of Thailand held discussions and reaffirmed their support for bilateral relations, economic partnership and efforts to advance the EU-Thailand Free Trade Agreement (FTA). The roadmap for Thai-French relations is considered a key step for further development of relations between the European Union (EU) and ASEAN, accordingly. KResearch holds views on fostering cooperation with France in the following issues:... Read more
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16 Jan 2020
The US-China phase 1 trade pact was officially inked on January 15, 2020, lifting hopes that their 2-year tensions could ease. However, the US and China will continue to experience higher tariffs, in particular China, as some of its exports to US are still subject to additional tariffs at the rate of 7.5 percent despite the US decision to reduce tariffs on Chinese imports worth USD120 billion while other Chinese imports worth USD250 billion are still subject to tariffs at the rate of 25 percent in 2020. ... Read more
6 Jan 2020
The US-Iran tensions have ramped up after General Qasem Soleimani, the Iran’s top commander, was killed in Baghdad on January 3, 2020, shooting up the international benchmark Brent crude on January 6, 2020 by 7 percent as compared to the level registered at the end of 2019. This conflict is being closely monitored and unlikely to end soon. The extent of the impact on Thailand will depend on the level of oil price, and how long it will stay at such a high level. Based on our preliminary projections, if the Dubai crude oil price stays at USD80 per barrel for six months, it will affect Thailand’s inflation by 0.75 percentage points from the base case, pushing the headline inflation to 1.15-1.65 percent and cutting the country’s GDP by 0.08 percent. ... Read more
5 Sep 2019
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7 Aug 2019
The People's Bank of China allowed its currency to fall below 7 Yuan to the US Dollar for the first time in 11 years after the US announced last week that it would slap a 10 percent tariff on USD300 billion of Chinese goods. The latest move by Beijing signals its readiness to retaliate against the US by allowing the Yuan currency to depreciate. China may use additional currency depreciation measures as a retaliatory action, and to ease the negative impact of tariffs on the Chinese economy. KResearch views that the Chinese authorities are unlikely to let the Yuan currency significantly weaken, because a drastic change in currency value could adversely affect China’s financial stability and shake investor confidence. ... Read more
2 Aug 2019
US President Donald Trump eventually announced an additional 10 percent tariff on the remaining USD300 billion of Chinese imports, effective September 1, 2019, due mainly to the slow progress in the trade talks. In particular, Beijing is bargaining for conditions which are difficult to be achievable. KResearch views that this round of punitive tariffs will add pressure on Thai exports that are linked to China’s manufacturing supply chains, especially electronic parts which are used in household appliance production. Hence, the damage to Thailand’s exports is expected to increase to USD2.4 billion this year due to the escalating trade war (up from our initial projection of USD2.1 billion, which was calculated on the US punitive tariff of 25 percent on USD250 billion of Chinese imports only). The impact will become more evident in 2020 when the indirect effect from the slowing global economy will further drag overall outbound shipments from Thailand next year. ... Read more
28 Jun 2019
All eyes are on the G20 Summit, in particular a talk between the US and China, the world’s superpowers, to end the trade war that will last for a year in July 2019. Looking back, it is believed that the US and China knew that they would not benefit from the persistent trade war. A clear consequence of their trade dispute is now seen in rising prices of their imported products and this has hurt their consumers and manufacturers. The stances of the US and Chinese leaders in ending the trade war are based on political benefits and their popularity at home.... Read more
7 May 2019
The trade talks between the US and China last week did not produce a satisfactory outcome either side. Moreover, the US President Donald Trump announced plans to further raise tariffs on USD200 billion of Chinese goods from 10 to 25 percent starting Friday, May 10. The latest move puts greater pressure on world trade and reflects Washington’s effort to force Beijing to pursue negotiation guidelines in order for both sides to reach a mutually-satisfying agreement and stop the trade war by the end of 2019.... Read more
5 Mar 2019
The Thai Baht weakened from late February to early March, 2019 after hitting a five-year record high of THB31.07 per Dollar. The Baht traded within a range of THB31.80-THB31.85 per Dollar (as of March 5, 2019) amid varied pressures, namely domestic factors and US Dollar short-covering from many market participants. The Baht’s movement was consistent with net sales in the Thai equity and bond markets by foreign investors. At the same time, the Dollar began gaining ground against other currencies, backed by economic data and rising treasury yields after positive signs of an imminent trade deal between Washington and Beijing. ... Read more
22 Jan 2019
China’s economy grew 6.6 percent in 2018, declining substantially from the 6.8 percent pace recorded in 2017. Its economy has weakened steadily, especially during 4Q18 to 6.4 percent, representing the lowest growth in 28 years. The sharp decline in 4Q18 economic performance was attributable chiefly to a decelerated export growth of 4.3 percent YoY against the 11.1 percent pace reported for 3Q18. China’s disappointing export performance was clearly a result of the protracted trade war, which has crippled its business sector to make profit. In November 2018, profit in the Chinese business sector contracted for the first time in over three years at only 1.8 percent despite attempts by the government to sustain economic growth through numerous policy tools, including liquidity injection via financial institutions and easing control of local government investment. A slower growth in M1 at only 1.5 percent in December also shows that the effectiveness of China’s monetary policy has become increasingly restricted and liquidity injection into the economic system was intended only to maintain financial costs. As a result, private investment will continue to be subdued ahead. In addition, the slowing GDP growth seen in the tertiary industry signals that domestic demand has began to decline. ... Read more
14 Dec 2018
We at KResearch view that the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will likely raise its policy rate by another 0.25 percent to 2.25-2.50 percent over the current 2.00-2.25 percent at its final meeting of 2018 as it marches toward a more normal policy stance, given that the US economy has outperformed its long-term growth potential. Although several US economic indicators have begun to decline, in particular housing market indicators following the Fed’s gradual policy rate hikes, the US economic fundamental overall continues to support its monetary policy normalization. This is evidenced by the US manufacturing PMI that came in at 59.3 in November, suggesting that there will likely be positive sentiment in the US manufacturing sector going forward while employment grew faster than the latest round of the Fed Funds rate increase despite signs of slowing down.... Read more
3 Dec 2018
On the sidelines of the G20 meetings in Buenos Aires, Argentina on December 1, 2018, US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping struck a temporary truce, agreeing not to increase punitive tariffs for 90 days after the G20 meetings to pave the way for negotiations to end the trade war. President Trump agrees to postpone increasing tariffs on USD200 billion of Chinese goods from 10 to 25 percent from the original schedule of January 1, 2019 for another 60 days to March 1, 2019. China, meanwhile, pledges to buy a larger amount of agricultural produce, energy and industrial goods from the US to address trade imbalances between the two countries. Moreover, both leaders agree to begin negotiations on structural changes with respect to forced technology transfer, intellectual property protection, non-tariff barriers, cyber intrusions and cyber theft.... Read more
19 Nov 2018
Uncertainties associated with the trade war between Washington and Beijing may prompt investors to manage their business risks by diversifying their investments from China to countries not directly affected by the trade battle. Nonetheless, direct benefits for Thailand will be limited because Thailand is not a major recipient of investments in labor intensive industries. And as products require increasingly sophisticated technologies, many Chinese products have still maintained a price competitive edge, dimming possibilities of diversion of investments. ... Read more
19 Oct 2018
China’s economic growth slipped to 6.5 percent YoY in 3Q18, representing a record low since 2009. The decelerated growth was attributable to steady drop in its industrial production amid the country’s trade dispute, which is expected to escalate ahead, plus persistent sluggishness seen in household consumption from 2Q18. However, exports overall grew 11.2 percent YoY, sustained by accelerated industrial production since 2Q18. China’s increased shipments to the US also helped support its 3Q18 economic performance. ... Read more
16 Aug 2018
Financial markets worldwide are keeping close watch on possible risks and impacts that may be caused by the Turkish Lira crisis. Although the Lira has picked up somewhat (after hitting a historical low at 7.2362/USD on August 13), it will likely face many sell-offs ahead amid limited tools/resources to deal with such volatilities. Meanwhile, the fragility of Turkey’s economic fundamentals is not something that can be fixed in the foreseeable future. ... Read more
15 Aug 2018
In 2018, the Turkish economy is facing pressures from all sides amid risks threatening its economic stability such as the Federal Reserve interest rate hike, which accelerates fund outflows and continuously and quickly increases borrowing costs. An increasing oil price and weaker Turkish lira have caused Turkish inflation to surge. This latest crisis was triggered by intensified political tensions between the US and Turkey. Due to an anticipation of Washington’s harsh trade protective measures against Istanbul, investors have seemed to lose confidence in the Turkish economy, triggering the currency freefall.... Read more
19 Jul 2018
From the beginning of 2018 to July 19, the Yuan weakened by more than 3.5 percent against the US Dollar, representing a new record low of CNY6.73/USD. Factors contributing to a rapid softening of the Yuan over the past few months include heightened risks stemming from the US-China trade war, which have prompted China to switch to more accommodating monetary policy in an effort to ensure economic stability at home and maintain its economic growth. In so doing, China has injected liquidity into its banking system and cut the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) for commercial banks by 1.50 percent this year. Moreover, China has injected additional liquidity into its banking system via medium-term lending facility (MLF) while new Yuan loans grew to CNY1.84 trillion in June, bettering the CNY1.22 trillion reported over the past 12 months. If China sends signals to ease its monetary policy further or its economic performance continues to slow, it is expected that the Yuan will tumble even further and this warrants close monitoring in the future. ... Read more
17 Jul 2018
While China’s government policies have constrained growth in some economic sectors, its GDP report for 2Q18 indicated ongoing growth overall, reaching 6.7 percent YoY compared to the 6.8-percent pace reported for 1Q18. Considering growth components, the factors pressuring economic growth include the government’s measures to supervise risks associated with the property sector and local governments’ investments. As a result of such measures, growth of investments in durable assets dropped from 7.5 percent YoY in 3M18 to 6.0 percent YoY in 6M18.... Read more
14 Mar 2018
The US is pressing ahead with trade measures against trade partners globally. In addition to their new ‘safeguard tariffs’ on imported solar panels and large washing machines imposed early in 2018, and more recently on imported steel and aluminum, the US is now preparing to implement protectionist measures against Chinese products valued at around USD60 billion. This direction will likely add significant pressure to global trade, thus, KResearch views that all eyes should be closely kept on negotiations between the US and EU, both being among the largest economies in the world. Details on those negotiations are expected to be released before the relevant ‘safeguard tariffs’ on steel and aluminum become effective at the end of next week. If the EU and China are exempted from these new tariffs, prevailing anxiety will ease. But to the contrary, without such exemptions, China and the EU may opt to implement their own trade protectionist measures against the US, as well. This situation would likely escalate into further actions and reactions, incurring significant damage to trade that could spill over to other regions of the world.... Read more
2 Mar 2018
Throughout 2018, the US administration’s continual pursuit of protectionist trade measures has tended to increase volatility in global trade. Most recently, President Donald Trump announced that new “safeguard” tariffs would be imposed on steel and aluminum imports at 25 percent and 10 percent, respectively. Although no details have been released yet, it seems undeniable that trade with the US will become difficult, going forward.... Read more