Resurgence of COVID-19 May Lead to Roughly THB45 Billion in Losses within One Month (Current Issue No.3173)

​Thailand recently reported a new wave of COVID-19 at a shrimp market in Samut Sakhon, which has led to a lockdown in this province from December 19, 2020 to January 3, 2021 as well as some cases in other provinces. Preliminarily, if no clusters of infections are found in more provinces or a broad-based lockdown is not imposed in the country again, we at KResearch assess that losses to Thailand's economic and industrial sectors may amount to roughly THB45 billion within one month. Details are as follows:  

• Losses to fisheries and seafood products may reach approximately THB13 billion as consumers may not purchase such products over the short term. In addition, such shipments will likely be affected somewhat later on because trade partners may require Thai exporters to tighten inspection measures and other processes.
• Losses due to the fact that people, especially those residing in Bangkok, may defer their activities during the New Year festival are projected to be at least THB15 billion.
• Losses stemming from the fact that people may delay their domestic trips will likely reach around THB17 billion. Affected provinces are those in the western and central regions, Bangkok and those located along the Thailand-Myanmar border.

In addition, there are other losses that cannot be assessed in terms of value such as income of purveyors in markets as people will likely avoid visiting places where cases were found.

This assessment on losses to Thailand's economic and industrial sectors resulting from the resurgence of COVID-19 is only preliminary. If the new wave of COVID-19 can be controlled, and the public sector has measures to quickly restore confidence in place, it is expected that such losses will be lower.