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22 Sep 2026

Econ Digest

Thailand’s remaining carbon credit inventory stands at 24 million tons, highlighting both opportunities and challenges in the market, with unsold credits accounting for 90% of all certified carbon credits.

คะแนนเฉลี่ย

  • The latest data show that compensated carbon credits total 2.72 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (tCO2e), representing only around 10% of the 27 million tCO2e in total certified carbon credits. This highlights a substantial volume of credits remaining in the registry, at over 24.28 million tCO2e, indicating a significant gap in Thailand's voluntary carbon credit market.
  • However, the remaining carbon credits in the registry should not be interpreted as the total supply readily available for sale, as some credits may be held by their owners to offset their own organizations' emissions, reserved to support Net Zero targets, or withheld from sale until prices and market demand improve in the future.
  • In addition, carbon credits vary in quality and market demand depending on the greenhouse gas reduction methodology, project type, credit vintage, credibility of verification, and environmental and social co-benefits. Some buyers may specifically seek credits from forestry, clean energy, or projects with high additionality. As a result, certain types of credits may remain in the registry but fail to meet buyers' requirements.
  • Pricing remains a key factor distinguishing remaining carbon credit inventory from credits that are commercially tradable. If the prices sought by credit holders exceed buyers' willingness to pay, or if buyers perceive quality-related or reputational risks, transactions may not take place even when the credits are available for use in the registry. A large inventory may therefore reflect a combination of limited demand, price mismatches, and market segmentation based on credit quality.
  • Looking ahead, demand for carbon credits may increase as the government implements environmental measures and strengthens national greenhouse gas reduction targets. These initiatives may include setting Carbon Neutrality targets for government agencies and businesses, as well as developing Thailand's Emissions Trading System (TH ETS), which may allow regulated entities to use eligible carbon credits to offset a portion of their compliance obligations. However, the resulting demand may be concentrated in high-quality credits that meet specific requirements regarding methodology, credit vintage, verification, and the prevention of double counting. Consequently, these developments may not necessarily absorb all types of remaining carbon credits in the market.
  • For Thai businesses, the large carbon credit inventory presents both risks and opportunities. While it may put downward pressure on carbon credit prices and returns from conventional projects, it could also increase the value of high-quality credits with clear traceability and strong buyer acceptance. Businesses should therefore avoid basing their carbon offsetting strategies solely on price and volume, and instead consider credit quality, suitability for their intended purposes, and reputational risks.

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