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Econ Digest

27 Apr 2021

Econ Digest

The Fed is expected to maintain policy rate of 0.0-0.25%at its meeting on April 27-28, 2021, and to maintain an accommodative monetary policy for the rest of the year.

KResearch projects that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will maintain its policy rate within the range of 0.0-0.25% at its meeting on April 27-28, 2021. While the US economy has shown signs of recovery following expedited vaccination efforts, with business activities able to return to normal amid the cons... Read more

23 Apr 2021

Econ Digest

The share of Thailand’s xEV sales will account for more than half of total automobile sales in less than 10 years

Thailand's xEV vehicle registration in the first two months of 2021 was 9,164 units, or a growth of 42.6%YoY. KResearch expects that if the new outbreak of COVID-19 can be contained, in tandem with automobile manufacturers’ market promotion for xEVs being in the range of lower than THB1 million, the... Read more

23 Apr 2021

Econ Digest

Political turmoil may cause Myanmar’s economy to contract 8.5% in 2021

Amid positive signs seen in the global economic recovery, Myanmar is experiencing political turmoil at home. The country's image in the eye of Western nations is at peril after the US suspended the Trade and Investment Framework Agreement (TIFA) that it had entered into with Myanmar in 2013. This me... Read more

22 Apr 2021

Econ Digest

Chinese economy in 1Q21 grew 18.3%YoY, thanks to a low base in the previous year

China's economy in 1Q21 grew 18.3%YoY, this surge was primarily attributed to a low base in 1Q20. On a QoQ basis, which may better depict the present economic growth, China's economy grew by a mere 0.6% due to the fragility of private consumption, the uneven recovery of the manufacturing sector and ... Read more

21 Apr 2021

Econ Digest

Thailand’s 2021 GDP growth projected to slip to 1.8% due to the new wave of COVID-19

KResearch projects that the Thai economy will grow at slow rate of only 1.8% in 2021, against prior estimate of 2.6%, because the current COVID-19 pandemic in the country is much worse than the previous one. The increased concern over the domestic COVID-19 situation has prompted consumers to adjust ... Read more

20 Apr 2021

Econ Digest

Third Wave of COVID-19... Expected to Cause Loss of THB130 billion in Thailand’s Domestic Tourism Revenue

The latest figures from the Ministry of Tourism and Sports show that domestic tourism in Thailand surged by more than 30% in February 2021 compared to January 2021, when the country was hit hard by the second wave of COVID-19. Thailand’s domestic tourism market was again hit hard by the third outbre... Read more

19 Apr 2021

Econ Digest

COVID-19 vaccines will determine Thailand’s future

Thailand has reported a record daily rise in confirmed COVID-19 cases for several consecutive days after entering a new wave of the pandemic. On April 16, 2021, Thailand’s COVID-19 reproduction rate set a record high at 2.28%, which was higher than the world’s average rate at 1.11% and was also high... Read more

16 Apr 2021

Econ Digest

Third wave of epidemic affects confidence in household economic conditions

The KR-ECI rebounded to 40.4 in March 2021 from 39.5 in February 2021 due to the easing of outbreak control measures prompted by the improving COVID-19 situation, with the cancellation of all red zones and with all restaurants and entertainment venues being allowed to operate during specified shorte... Read more

16 Mar 2021

Econ Digest

The Fed is expected to maintain policy rate at 0.0-0.25% during its meeting on March 16-17, 2021, aimed at supporting economic recovery

KResearch assesses that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will likely maintain its policy rate at 0.0-0.25% during the upcoming FOMC meeting that is slated for March 16-17, 2021. Although the US economy exhibits signs of recovery, it may take a while to fully bounce back, thus prompting the Fed to keep i... Read more

24 Feb 2021

Econ Digest

Thai exports in January 2021 grew in line with the global economy, 2021 Thai exports expected to grow at 3.0%

Thailand's outward trade posted steady growth over-month in January 2021 as the global economy began to recover. Excluding gold, Thai exports increased 6.3%, suggesting stronger demand for Thai products abroad, in particular automotive accessories, which surged 18.8%YoY. Shipments of work-from-home ... Read more

16 Feb 2021

Econ Digest

Thailand's policy interest rate lowered to near 0%, will QE be implemented in Thailand?

Quantitative easing (QE) is an unconventional form of monetary policy tool which is typically used by central banks of many countries and regions, including the United States, Europe, the UK and Japan, in helping address their economic woes after having to cut their policy interest rates to near 0%.... Read more

8 Feb 2021

Econ Digest

Myanmar’s economy projected to contract 2.5% after political upheaval

More dynamic relationships between Myanmar and Western powers have been imperative in the development of Myanmar's economy over the past decade. As a result, the country has reported relatively impressive economic growth on the back of increased foreign investment, thus helping bolster its exports a... Read more

27 Jan 2021

Econ Digest

Thai bond yields may gradually rise in 2021

The yields in the Thai bond market tend to gradually rise in 2021, especially medium term to under 10-year government bonds, due to two major factors: 1) the possibility of rising US treasury bond yields if the US is able to control the outbreak of COVID-19 and the approval of President Joe Biden’s ... Read more

25 Jan 2021

Econ Digest

Thai exports face various challenges, with growth projected at 3.0% in 2021

The COVID-19 pandemic continues to persist worldwide, including in Thailand. In spite of this, hopes for COVID-19 vaccines, less stringent lockdown measures than the previous round of the pandemic and economic stimulus measures introduced by many countries supported Thai exports in December 2020 to ... Read more

22 Jan 2021

Econ Digest

Which direction are Thai bond yields going?

A new outbreak of COVID-19 that tends to become more severe has made it necessary for the authorities of many countries to urgently launch additional measures in order to help those affected and limit the risks that may occur to overall economic recovery. A clear example is that the US has released ... Read more

21 Jan 2021

Econ Digest

China's economic recovery plan in 2021 will focus on green and new infrastructure investment

The economy of China in the fourth quarter of 2020 grew by 6.5%YoY, amounting to full-year growth that exceeded projections, at 2.3% YoY. The figures reflect China's success in efficiently controlling the COVID-19 pandemic and implementing both monetary and fiscal stimuli in a timely and effective m... Read more

20 Jan 2021

Econ Digest

The US starts collecting AD duties on Thai vehicle tires

On December 30, 2020, the US Department of Commerce announced affirmative preliminary determinations in the antidumping duty (AD) investigations of passenger vehicle and light truck tires from Thailand, Taiwan, South Korea and Vietnam. Its final determinations in these cases are scheduled for mid-20... Read more

19 Jan 2021

Econ Digest

Brighter outlook for Thai agriculture in 2021, but close attention must also be paid to 3 risk factors, namely global competition, the Baht and COVID-19

Thai agriculture remained stable in 2020, supported by agricultural products prices that surged 4.5%YoY due to the drought that led to a huge drop in production in the first half of 2020. The exports of Thai agricultural products during the first 11 months of 2021 contracted only 3.9%YoY, putting le... Read more

18 Jan 2021

Econ Digest

Plant-based milk beverages provide vast opportunuities…meeting diverse needs

Soy milk is a common plant-based drink that is available in both freshly boiled and ready-to-drink bottled/boxed forms, and currently holds the largest market share in the plant-based milk beverage market. The soy milk beverage market has become increasingly competitive due to the entry of new opera... Read more

15 Jan 2021

Econ Digest

Restaurant industry in 2021 is still highly risky

The restaurant industry in 2021 is still as highly risky as it was in 2020. The new wave of local COVID-19 transmissions, fierce competition among businesses and yet-to-recover purchasing power will affect any recovery of restaurants in 2021 to varying degrees. Full-service restaurants may recover o... Read more

14 Jan 2021

Econ Digest

Sugarcane harvesters… reduce PM 2.5 levels, add value to products

It is commonplace in Thailand to harvest sugarcane supplied to sugar mills by burning the sugarcane before cutting it, with an average of up to 65.5% of sugarcane being burned in the past 10 crop years. This practice increases local PM2.5 dust, in addition to resulting in payments to farmers being r... Read more

13 Jan 2021

Econ Digest

December KR-ECI fell for the first time in 4 months due to the new wave of the COVID-19 pandemic

Households were concerned about the overall economic and living conditions in December 2020 as well as for the following three months. The KR Household Economic Condition Index (KR-ECI) and the 3-month Expected KR-ECI fell from 41.0 and 41.1 in November 2020 to 40.2 and 40.7 respectively in December... Read more

12 Jan 2021

Econ Digest

Vietnam is listed as a currency manipulation country

The US designated Vietnam as a currency manipulation country, primarily due to Vietnam's interference in the Dong as evidenced by Vietnam’s net foreign currency purchases, which were equivalent to 5.1 percent of GDP, exceeding the benchmark set at 2.0 percent of GDP. The State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) ... Read more

11 Jan 2021

Econ Digest

BREXIT DEAL issue begins to ease... but COVID-19 pandemic remains severe

The United Kingdom (UK) and the European Union (EU) have finally reached an agreement prior to the end of the transition period in their post-BREXIT relationship. From January 1, 2021, both parties will continue to trade goods without import duties as before. KResearch views that the agreement will ... Read more

7 Jan 2021

Econ Digest

BOT introduces measures to stabilize the Baht and adjust balance in foreign exchange market ecosystem

Since the start of 2021, major global and Asian currencies, including the Chinese Yuan, have continued to strengthen while the US dollar has been facing sell-off, pressured by the Fed's quantitative easing and the US presidential transition. Meanwhile, the Thai Baht's value has surged past the level... Read more

7 Jan 2021

Econ Digest

Prospects…Thai air conditioner export

With exports of non-inverter air conditioners on a decline trend over the past year, Thailand has the opportunity to benefit from the increased demand for general inverter air conditioners in emerging countries. However going forward, in addition to its original competitor China, Thailand may face c... Read more

6 Jan 2021

Econ Digest

Auto hire purchase loans in 2021 are expected to recover in line with new car sales

The auto hire purchase industry is another area that has been affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. The outstanding balance of auto loans in the commercial banking system at the end of 3Q20 had grown at a slower pace of 3.5 percent. The slowdown resulted from a decrease in newly approved credit and a d... Read more

6 Jan 2021

Econ Digest

Private hospitals in 2021 have to adjust and prepare for competition and challenge

In the first 9 months of 2020, the revenue of listed private hospitals declined 14.2 percent (YoY) and the profit declined 54.8 percent (YoY). Under the assumptions of no second wave of local COVID-19 outbreak, of the government's gradual easing of travel restrictions to allow for more international... Read more

5 Jan 2021

Econ Digest

Thailand’s auto tire exports worrying…constrained by U.S. trade barriers

In recent years, it has become clear that the US has increasingly taken a variety of measures to protect its trade interests with its international trading partners. On 16th December 2020, the US Department of Treasury labeled Vietnam as a currency manipulator to benefit its exports in the report of... Read more

30 Dec 2020

Econ Digest

Thai Auto Industry 2021: With no further lockdowns, car sales may exceed 850,000 units

The domestic auto market has been severely affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. KResearch projects that sales in the Thai automotive industry in 2020 will reach 770,000 units, a contraction of 23.6% YOY. However, the trend for vehicle sales in Thailand will have a chance to rebound in 2021, provided t... Read more

29 Dec 2020

Econ Digest

New Year holidays 2021: Bangkok residents adjust travel plans

The new wave of the COVID-19 pandemic has dealt a blow to Thai tourism, which had just begun to bounce back. Although the government has issued measures to control the COVID-19 outbreak, it has yet to restrict cross-provincial travel. A KResearch survey shows that more than 54.8% of Bangkok resident... Read more

29 Dec 2020

Econ Digest

Construction costs continue to surge in the first half of 2021

KResearch views that overall construction costs may increase by approximately 1.03-1.33% per project in 2020, as COVID-19 preventive measures may drive up construction costs by 0.2-0.5% per project while labor costs will rise by another 0.83% per project due to labor shortages. ... Read more

25 Dec 2020

Econ Digest

Thai exports still face challenges in 2021

Thai exports exhibited improving signs in November 2020 by shrinking only 3.65%YoY compared with a 6.71%YoY contraction in October 2020. Excluding oil-related products, gold and arms, November exports contracted only 2.09%YoY.... Read more

23 Dec 2020

Econ Digest

Resurgence of COVID-19 May Lead to Roughly THB45 Billion in Losses within One Month

A new wave of COVID-19 originating from the shrimp market in Samut Sakhon province has led to an increase in infection cases and resulted in a lockdown in this province from December 19, 2020 to January 3, 2021. Infected individuals have been found to have spread to many areas in multiple provinces.... Read more

22 Dec 2020

Econ Digest

The impact of the southern floods in early December 2020 will continue until March 2021, dragging down the production of rubber and palm oil, causing income loss of more than THB6.6 billion.

KResearch assesses that southern rubber and palm oil growers may lose approximately THB6.6 billion in income due to the impact of flooding from December 2020 to March 2021. ... Read more

19 Dec 2020

Econ Digest

Monitoring List... the Thai Baht is monitored by the U.S.

The U.S. Department of the Treasury (USDT) publishes the report of the Macroeconomic and Foreign Exchange Policies of Major Trading Partners of the United States twice a year, in order to review and monitor its trading partners’ policy directions. The U.S. has set three conditions/criteria in determ... Read more

18 Dec 2020

Econ Digest

MPC meeting on December 23, 2020: Policy rate is likely to hold at 0.5% after the economy starts to recover

KResearch expects that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will keep its policy rate steady at 0.50% during the meeting scheduled for December 23, 2020, since there are signs of gradual recovery in the Thai economy. Meanwhile, the economy is expected to benefit continuously from the Thai government’... Read more

14 Dec 2020

Econ Digest

The Fed is expected to hold its policy rate steady at 0.00-0.25% during its meeting on December 15-16, 2020 to maintain policy space for coping with COVID-19

KResearch assesses that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will likely keep its policy rate steady at 0.00-0.25% and will not announce additional monetary easing tools during the Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) meeting slated for December 15-16, 2020, ... Read more

10 Dec 2020

Econ Digest

Although Bangkok residents cut their budget for the 2021 New Year festival, the total spending will reach THB30 billion

A survey conducted by KResearch on spending behavior of Bangkok residents during the 2021 New Year festival shows that 42.5% of respondents are choosing to celebrate the festival in Bangkok to avoid traffic jams, as some respondents have been traveling during the long-holiday since the beginning of ... Read more

8 Dec 2020

Econ Digest

5 Questions for new gold investors

Gold has been one of the most profitable assets of 2020. On December 4, 2020, the spot gold price in the global market rose 21% from the end of last year to USD1,840 per ounce, while the domestic gold price rose 22% to THB26,250 per Baht(Thai unit of measurement). For new investors interested in inv... Read more

4 Dec 2020

Econ Digest

Thailand is striving towards an electric vehicle production base in the region

Although the latest EV promotion package which expired at the end of 2018 received a good response, reflected by the number of companies applying for investment promotion, only some of them have made actual investments, due to the impact of various factors such as the continuing limitations of globa... Read more

3 Dec 2020

Econ Digest

Guideline for upgrading of Thai pharmaceutical industry: promote investment and support research and development

The increase in Thailand’s total population and the proportion of the elderly population resulting in an aging society are pressures on the management of the public health system, and the government’s public health budget is expected to continuously increase. An analysis of Thailand’s the public hea... Read more

2 Dec 2020

Econ Digest

Trump suspended GSP privileges and Biden supports electric vehicles. It's time for Thai auto parts manufacturers to embrace BEVs.

The export of Thai auto parts to the US market must be changed now that Donald Trump has announced the suspension of GSP privileges, which went into effect January 1, 2021, and which brought back a 2.5% import tax after the tax was waived under GSP. The auto parts that have had GSP privileges suspen... Read more

26 Nov 2020

Econ Digest

Things to Know Before Opening an FCD Account

On November 20, 2020, the Bank of Thailand (BOT) issued measures aimed at easing pressure on Baht to help balance the flow of funds into and out of Thailand. One of the measures announced on the same day was regarding BOT’s foreign currency deposit (FCD) account, which allows Thais to deposit funds ... Read more

25 Nov 2020

Econ Digest

Myanmar … after Aung San Suu Kyi won her second term in office

Prior to the government under the leadership of Aung San Suu Kyi, the value of foreign investment in Myanmar averaged only USD2.083 billion per year, with China as the largest foreign investor in the country, aiming at investment in natural resources such as copper, iron and jade mining, etc. Since ... Read more

24 Nov 2020

Econ Digest

Thai exports falter after continuous recovery

While the global economy shows a continued recovery, Thai exports shrank by 6.71 YoY in October 2020 to USD19.37 billion, but minus related petroleum products, gold and munitions, exports fell by 4.89%, resulting in Thai exports shrinking by 7.26 percent YoY in the first 10 months.... Read more

23 Nov 2020

Econ Digest

The BOT introduces additional measures to manage the Baht and balance fund flows

There was an influx of capital flows in Thai stock and bond markets after the US Presidential election and amid hopes for COVID-19 vaccines. During November 1-19, 2020, such capital flows reached THB69.7 billion, representing the highest level in 17 months, while the Baht hit a new 10-month high of ... Read more

20 Nov 2020

Econ Digest

Indonesia set to become Thailand’s rival in BEV production as the world's largest nickel ore* producer

Electric vehicles (EVs) have increasingly made their presence felt within ASEAN; in particular, investment in EV production is growing fast in Thailand and Indonesia. Currently, Thailand has an edge over Indonesia in terms of EV manufacturing, thanks to its complete auto-parts supply chain and highe... Read more

18 Nov 2020

Econ Digest

Thai economy begins to recover in 3Q20… government measures expected to drive continued GDP recovery in 4Q20

The Thai economy in the third quarter of 2020 contracted at a better-than-market-expected rate of -8.0% YoY as economic activities recovered, partly due to a smaller-than-expected contraction in exports from pent-up demand after the easing of lockdown measures in Thailand and many other countries. M... Read more

18 Nov 2020

Econ Digest

Thai Baht appreciated 3.4% after foreign capital flowed into Thai stock and bond markets with the highest volume in 17 months in the wake of Biden’s victory in the US presidential election

Preliminary results show that Joe Biden from the Democratic Party has been elected the 46th President of the US, leading to a major shift in investment portfolios around the world. Thai stock and bond markets are among Asian money and capital markets that benefited from this shift of investment. ... Read more

18 Nov 2020

Econ Digest

KR-ECI increased for four straight months in October, supported by higher income and employment in the agricultural sector

The KR Household Economic Condition Index (KR-ECI) increased from 38.1 in September 2020 to 39.5 in October of the same year... Read more

17 Nov 2020

Econ Digest

MPC meeting on November 18, 2020: Policy rate likely on hold at 0.5% in order to maintain policy space in case of necessity

KResearch expects that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will keep its policy rate steady at 0.50% during the meeting scheduled for November 18, 2020 ... Read more

16 Nov 2020

Econ Digest

Guidelines for Food Delivery Businesses

Food Delivery is one of the most popular and attractive industries during and after the spreading of COVID-19. It has grown due to changes in consumer behavior and investment by domestic and foreign food delivery platform operators. KResearch projects that the number of food deliveries for the whole... Read more

13 Nov 2020

Econ Digest

Be prepared...Tackling the new standard of water footprint

In the world of agricultural production, products that require an efficient water footprint are becoming increasingly important and will play an ever more significant role in agriculture in the future. Products with a low water footprint will gain more attention from consumers who are aware of water... Read more

11 Nov 2020

Econ Digest

Factors to be considered in new investment era Must be beyond risks and returns

In 2020, we have seen fluctuations in asset prices around the world, including gold, stock and alternative assets such as Bitcoin. Although all assets have faced heavy selloffs from investors seeking liquidity during the COVID-19 pandemic, the prices of various assets have gradually recovered after ... Read more

10 Nov 2020

Econ Digest

The domestic tourism market: Thais favour mountainous natural attractions

Thailand's domestic tourism market has been continuing to grow after the COVID-19 situation in the country eased and the government launched measures to stimulate domestic tourism. Based on data provided by the Ministry of Tourism and Sports, the number of domestic tourists in the third quarter of 2... Read more

9 Nov 2020

Econ Digest

Thai industries to partially recover in 2021…but will fail to return to pre-COVID-19 levels

Under the assumptions that there will be no serious resurgence of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic in Thailand, that the majority of people in Thailand will receive COVID-19 vaccines in late 2021, and that the domestic political situation will not significantly impede the government’s budgetary d... Read more

5 Nov 2020

Econ Digest

Keep an eye on Thai exports to the US after the 2020 US election

Thai exports to the US in 2021 will mainly benefit from the recovery of the US economy, which is expected to have passed its lowest point this year. Meanwhile, the policies of the new US leader will become another factor that simultaneously drive the US economy and support Thai exports to accelerate... Read more

30 Oct 2020

Econ Digest

Beautiful accommodation and impressive spots for taking photos become main factors for current tourists in choosing accommodation

The hotel and accommodation industries are sectors of the tourism industry that have been hard hit by the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, and especially in the first half of 2020 have suffered a revenue loss of approximately THB256 billion due to the absence of foreign and Thai tourist arrivals. Th... Read more

28 Oct 2020

Econ Digest

The policy of promoting the use of domestic steel will boost domestic steel production while pushing up construction costs of government projects.

For the past several years, Thailand's steel industry has encountered challenges that stem from price competition against steel imports from China due mainly to steel oversupply in China’s market. Since 2014, Chinese steel manufacturers have cleared out their excessive stock via exports to markets i... Read more

27 Oct 2020

Econ Digest

Keep an eye on the 2020 US presidential election while assessing the direction of the US and Thai economies

Regarding the 2020 US presidential election held on November 3, 2020, KResearch views that if Joe Biden becomes the new President, the US economy may grow at least 3.0% in 2021, which would be higher than the projected growth of less than 2.0% in the case where Donald Trump secures his reelection du... Read more

26 Oct 2020

Econ Digest

Global demand has rebounded from the previous month, supporting Thai exports in September to shrink at a slower pace of 3.9%YoY

Thai exports in September 2020 stood at USD19.6213 billion, or a contraction of 3.9%YoY, amid a rise in global demand compared to the previous month. Thai exports over the first nine months shrank 7.3%YoY, driven by the exports of electronic products and electrical appliances that grew 11.6% after f... Read more

22 Oct 2020

Econ Digest

The Chinese economy in 3Q20 grew 4.9%YoY…thanks to domestic consumption and exportation of medical and electronic products

The Chinese economy in the third quarter of 2020 grew 4.9%YoY, continuing the positive trend from the second quarter of 2020 in which a 3.2% growth YoY was seen. This expansion can be attributed to the gradual recovery of private consumption, particularly retail sales that grew 3.3% YoY in September... Read more

19 Oct 2020

Econ Digest

“Shop Dee Mee Kuen” program will bolster the retail sector and stimulate spending during the year-end of 2020

The government has introduced a series of spending stimulus measures. Among them is the “Kon La Khreung” program (Let’s Go Halves or the government’s 3,000-Baht cash handout program) to help small daily necessity product retailers, such as “Blue Flag” stores, groceries and small retail shops. ... Read more

16 Oct 2020

Econ Digest

Cloud solutions services grow despite the COVID-19 crisis

After being hit by the COVID-19 pandemic, especially during the lockdown period, many business organizations in Thailand have implemented work-from-home measures. Therefore, the continuity of business activities has become an urgent task and will support cloud solutions services in 2020 to grow expo... Read more

15 Oct 2020

Econ Digest

Although September KR-ECI improved, households remain concerned about debt repayments

The KR Household Economic Condition Index (KR-ECI) in September 2020 stood at 38.1, improved slightly over that reported for August 2020, suggesting that Thai households were more optimistic about their living conditions. The 3-month Expected KR-ECI also increased to 39.7 in alignment with the gradu... Read more

14 Oct 2020

Econ Digest

Kin Jae Festival in Bangkok will be poorly attended due to reduced participation as a result of COVID-19 and economic conditions

Kin Jae (Vegan Food) Festival this year will fall on October 17-25, 2020. Normally, the festival is well received by regular consumers groups including Thai-Chinese people who eat vegan food as a religious practice, and new-generation consumers who eat vegan food for health purposes. However, sluggi... Read more

12 Oct 2020

Econ Digest

Global tourism may not recover until 2024

The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has caused unprecedented losses for tourism activities around the world. In the first half of 2020, the number of international tourists decreased by more than 439 million compared with the same period last year, and the loss in international tourism revenue was a... Read more

9 Oct 2020

Econ Digest

“Shop Dee Mee Kuen” program will boost consumption in the final quarter of 2020

The government has launched its “Shop Dee Mee Kuen” program (Shop and Payback), which offers taxpayers income tax deductions when spending up to THB30,000, in order to stimulate consumption over the 70 day period from October 23rd to December 31st 2020. KResearch expects that the program will help b... Read more

8 Oct 2020

Econ Digest

Digital personal loans increase accessibility to loans for Thai people

Under the Digital Personal Loan Business Rules issued by the Bank of Thailand on September 15, 2020, lenders can use alternative data, e.g. receipts from water bills, electricity bills and telephone bills, as well as online spending information, to assess the borrowers’ ability or willingness to rep... Read more

7 Oct 2020

Econ Digest

China adopts stockpiling policy, triggering global agricultural commodity price tensions

In September 2020, China sent positive signals regarding its 14th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development (2021-2025), which will be implemented starting in 2021. In particular, the issue of increasing food reserves as a source of food security again at an accelerated pace may le... Read more

6 Oct 2020

Econ Digest

The medical equipment and device industry will become a sunrise industry despite the improving COVID-19 situation

The total market value of Thailand’s medical equipment and device industry in 2019 exceeded THB90 billion. Medical equipment and devices are divided into: 1. Disposable medical supplies such as medical gloves, syringes and catheters; 2. Durable medical supplies such as hospital beds and wheelchairs;... Read more

5 Oct 2020

Econ Digest

Beware! The importation of used electronics may turn into the importation of electronic waste

The Ministry of Commerce has announced the Notification Regarding the Prohibition of the Importation of Electronic Waste into the Kingdom B.E. 2563, effective from September 15, 2020, in an effort to save the environment and protect public safety. ... Read more

5 Oct 2020

Econ Digest

Skyrocketing household debt amid a shrinking economy

The latest report from the Bank of Thailand revealed that Thailand’s 2Q20 household debt had risen following the disruption of economic activities during the COVID-19 pandemic. The outstanding household debt hit an 18-year high of 83.8% of the GDP, rising from 80.1% of the GDP recorded during 1Q20. ... Read more

3 Oct 2020

Econ Digest

Money and capital markets may become volatile…Close attention must be paid to the US President’s illness

Money and capital markets fluctuated following the news that US President Donald Trump had been diagnosed with coronavirus (COVID-19). Risky assets experienced sell-offs, while the direction of the US Dollar was mixed (it largely depreciated against the Yen but appreciated against other currencies).... Read more

2 Oct 2020

Econ Digest

“Let’s Go Halves” program: to reduce cost burdens for consumers and increase sales volumes for retail stores

The new stimulus package called “Kon La Khreung” (Let’s Go Halves or the government’s 3,000-Baht cash handout program), effective October-December 2020, sets conditions that differ from previous spending stimulus measures. In addition to the subsidy that is capped at 10 million people and at THB3,00... Read more

1 Oct 2020

Econ Digest

Opportunities for eco-friendly packaging businesses

Amid the rising plastic waste crisis, where Thailand is among the countries throwing the most plastic waste into oceans, we have seen cooperation between government agencies and private sectors in launching campaigns and incentive measures to reduce the use of plastics from January 1, 2020, a good s... Read more

30 Sep 2020

Econ Digest

Cross-border data flows: the agreements on the usage of personal data across borders and business opportunities for Thai entrepreneurs

Presently, cross-border data flows are imperative for business expansion and global trade as they have driven global economic growth by 0.3%, or around USD2.6 trillion in value, over the past decade. Business organizations must rely on cross-border data flows in order to better understand the market... Read more

25 Sep 2020

Econ Digest

COVID-19 hinders exports: Thailand’s cross-border exports to Myanmar in 2020 may fall below THB100 billion, but the impact of stringent border restrictions on trade is insignificant

Myanmar has recently announced several requirements for truck drivers from Thailand: It is now necessary for drivers crossing the Myanmar border via Chiang Rai’s Mae Sai checkpoint to be replaced with Myanmar nationals. Furthermore, only six vehicles of any kind bearing Thai license plates are allow... Read more

24 Sep 2020

Econ Digest

Thai telecommunications operators tap into the 5G consumer market

After the 5G spectrum auction took place in early 2020, telecommunications operators have accelerated their investment in 5G networks covering all 77 provinces across the country, especially in cities that are the potential areas for 5G services, in order to compete for leadership within the realm o... Read more

23 Sep 2020

Econ Digest

Use of fruit picking robots: AgriTech to transform the Thai fruit farming sector with investment paid back within 4 years

Thailand is a major fruit production base globally; although the world economy is facing a crisis due to the COVID-19 outbreak in 2020, the total value of Thai fruit exports this year should be able to sustain a growth to THB120-150 billion, or 6.1-10.5% year-on-year. Along with the need to accelera... Read more

22 Sep 2020

Econ Digest

The standards of cage-free egg farming: Happy hen, quality egg, healthy consumer

Animal welfare is becoming a widely discussed topic in the food industry. Eggs produced by cage-free laying-hens, also known as “cage-free eggs”, are one of the products for which the Department of Livestock Development is preparing to set standards for certification, in addition to other production... Read more

22 Sep 2020

Econ Digest

MPC Meeting on September 23, 2020: To focus on boosting liquidity for businesses and households, while likely to keep policy rate steady at 0.50% until the end of this year

KResearch expects that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will keep its policy rate steady at 0.50% at least until the end of this year during its meeting slated for September 23, 2020 to maintain the monetary policy space. The MPC may view that a policy rate cut to near zero is not necessary at th... Read more

21 Sep 2020

Econ Digest

Drafting of the UK’s Internal Market Bill set to trigger a No-Deal Brexit

Amid the domestic political turmoil that the UK has grappled with since the initiation of the Brexit process in 2016, and based on the approaching time constraint and the latest development whereby the UK government plans to introduce the drafting of the Internal Market Bill which would allow the UK... Read more

18 Sep 2020

Econ Digest

Prohibition on sales of alcoholic beverages by electronic means

The Prime Minister’s Office has issued a proclamation of Prohibition on Sales of Alcoholic Beverages by Electronic Means B.E. 2563 on August 7, 2020, the main contents of which are: 1) It is prohibited for any person to sell alcoholic beverages or provide services related to alcoholic beverages dire... Read more

17 Sep 2020

Econ Digest

KR-ECI improves due to the support of domestic tourism stimulus measures and Phase 6 lockdown relaxation

The KR Household Economic Condition Index (KR-ECI) in August 2020 and the 3-month Expected KR-ECI stood at 36.4 and 38.4 respectively, increased from the survey in July 2020, suggesting that the perception of households towards living conditions improved in line with the relaxation of lockdown measu... Read more

15 Sep 2020

Econ Digest

Vitamin water:an expanding new segment of the beverage market

Although Thailand’s beverage business has recently shown a slowing trend, it is expected that healthy beverages will become products that meet the needs of the new generation of consumers. In particular, vitamin water (a category of water plus beverages) has become an interesting new segment of the ... Read more

15 Sep 2020

Econ Digest

The Fed is expected to hold its policy rate steady at 0.0-0.25% at its September 15-16 meeting after the adoption of an average inflation target of 2%

KResearch expects that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will maintain its policy rate at 0.0-0.25% at its meeting during September 15-16, 2020, ... Read more

14 Sep 2020

Econ Digest

The trend of contactless payment is attracting a new customer base to mobile banking and e-wallets

The COVID-19 pandemic has been an important catalyst in transforming the way Thai consumers conduct funds transfers and pay for goods and services. Such trends have given rise to the “New Normal”, which is geared towards making money transfers and purchases that do not require physical contact, othe... Read more

11 Sep 2020

Econ Digest

“Haitao”… Cross-border e-commerce - reaches 300 million users…Opportunities for Thai brands to expand into the Chinese market

The Chinese e-commerce market is the largest in the world with a value of around USD1.5 trillion in 2019, accounting for approximately 55% of the global e-commerce market value, and larger than the value of the US e-commerce market by two times. As the economy grows and purchasing power rises, Chine... Read more

10 Sep 2020

Econ Digest

THOR: the new reference rate that business operators should know

The end of the London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) began about eight years ago when financial regulators in the US and Europe discovered that certain financial institutions deliberately reported distorted and false LIBOR rates for certain benefits. The incident severely damaged the credibility of ... Read more

9 Sep 2020

Econ Digest

The Fed’s new monetary policy reinvigorates the Dow Jones index, but could lead to financial market turmoil in the future

The Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell announced a major adjustment to monetary policy at the Economic Policy Symposium held in Jackson Hole on August 27, 2020. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unanimously approved a shift in Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy, by ad... Read more

8 Sep 2020

Econ Digest

Rainstorms and rice output

The influence of the Sin Lagu and Higos storms during July and August caused continuous rain, flash flooding and floodwaters in many areas and resulted in damages in many provinces. KResearch views that the flooding in many of the northern and northeastern provinces of Thailand may not significantly... Read more

3 Sep 2020

Econ Digest

Free trade agreements link Thailand’s and the world’s automobile industries through agile supply chain production

The COVID-19 pandemic has affected the global automobile supply chain since the beginning of 2020, leading global automakers and parts manufacturers, especially Japanese automakers, to adopt new business models in order to reduce risks. Production has shifted from lean production that originally foc... Read more

1 Sep 2020

Econ Digest

The FED adjusts its target for “New monetary policy” and the impact on Thai Baht

The Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell announced a major adjustment to monetary policy at the Economic Policy Symposium held in Jackson Hole on August 27, 2020. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unanimously approved a shift in Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy, by ad... Read more

28 Aug 2020

Econ Digest

Thai Economy Faces Challenges

KASIKORN RESEARCH CENTER (KResearch) views that the Thai economy may have seen its trough in the second quarter on a QoQ basis. GDP for 2020 is projected to see a 10-percent contraction. Meanwhile, the Thai economy is likely to show a U-shaped recovery compared to the same period of last year. The f... Read more

27 Aug 2020

Econ Digest

Cloud Kitchen partners with food delivery service to launch the equipped central kitchen…targeting the delivery or takeaway customer base

In response to the food delivery business in Thailand, a new type of restaurant called Cloud Kitchen is undergoing a growth trend as food delivery becomes popular with consumers. This has been taking place especially during the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic, prompting an approximately 1.5-fold inc... Read more

26 Aug 2020

Econ Digest

The withdrawal of the EU’s EBA preferential arrangement could change Cambodia’s industries and exportation

The “Everything But Arms” (EBA) preferential trade arrangement of the European Union (EU) has played a significant role in changing Cambodia’s trade structure, especially after the year 2011 when the EU relaxed the rules of origin for exports from Cambodia. Thanks to this arrangement, exportation fr... Read more

25 Aug 2020

Econ Digest

Highly risky global economy may drag Thai exports down to a contraction of 12% in 2020

Thailand’s exports during the first seven months of 2020 contracted 7.7% YoY, while the export value in July alone stood at USD18,819 million, shrinking 11.4% YoY. Excluding oil, gold and arms shipments, Thai exports, however, contracted 13.0% YoY. Gold exports reverted to growth in July in line wit... Read more

20 Aug 2020

Econ Digest

Senior housing business…How to meet the needs of customers?

Thailand will become a fully aged society [1] in 2024, becoming a super-aged society [2]within the next 12 years or in 2032. There will be a marketplace of products and services designed to make life easy and safe, specifically for those of the aging population with purchasing power or savings. The ... Read more

19 Aug 2020

Econ Digest

Green Bonds…A solution to environmental protection and sustainable business management

As the new generation has shifted to a boom in consumption of alternative products in which the carbon dioxide emissions of production processes are reduced in the long term, such as biodegradable plastics and meat substitutes from plants/laboratories, etc., this business model has begun to attract ... Read more

18 Aug 2020

Econ Digest

Thailand’s GDP contracted 12.2% in 2Q20, while a contraction of more than 6.0% is expected for the whole year

The Thai economy shrank by 12.2%YoY in 2Q20, which is better than the 13.0% to 17.0%YoY contraction projected by the market, thanks to the expansion of government spending and investment under various economic stimulus measures, especially the THB5,000 relief fund per head for 3 consecutive... Read more

14 Aug 2020

Econ Digest

The reasons beyond data security that caused the US to ban foreign social media companies

The crisis of the COVID-19 pandemic has continuously driven the growth of the number of users of social media applications, which are becoming the main channel for interaction between consumers while maintaining social distancing, and which result in a large amount of consumer information rapidly fl... Read more

13 Aug 2020

Econ Digest

New CODEX standards for allergen management throughout the food production chain

At the recent 43rd Session of Codex Alimentarius Commission meeting, the issue of improving food safety management in the food production chain were discussed, for which operators including upstream producers, processing plants, retail stores and restaurants must prepare, as CODEX is preparing to an... Read more

11 Aug 2020

Econ Digest

KR-ECI reflects more concerns over the next three months

The KR Household Economic Condition Index (KR-ECI) stood at 35.3 in July 2020, declining from 36.0 in June, because households were more concerned about debt burden, expenses and domestic prices of goods and services. Although the Bank of Thailand (BOT) has introduced the second phase of debt relief... Read more

6 Aug 2020

Econ Digest

Fierce competition in the food delivery application industry

Due to the outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic in Thailand, the government has imposed stringent measures to temporarily restrict the commercial sector from providing services, severely affecting the restaurant industry, only retaining takeaway channels with food being delivered to residences. As a re... Read more

4 Aug 2020

Econ Digest

MPC Meeting on August 5, 2020: Policy rate likely on hold at 0.5%

KResearch estimates that at the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) Meeting on 5 August, the Committee will put the policy rate on hold at 0.50% to gauge the domestic economic conditions, especially for 2Q20 GDP which is expected to be the largest contraction of the year. If the economic contraction is... Read more

31 Jul 2020

Econ Digest

Gluten free, a popular trend in free-from foods An opportunity to promote a new champion product from “Thai cassava”

Gluten-free foods are foods that do not contain the gluten protein found in wheat, barley and oats. Gluten ingestion affects the immune system of people who are allergic to this type of protein, known as a gluten allergy or celiac disease, causing abnormalities in the digestion system and in food ab... Read more

30 Jul 2020

Econ Digest

Gluten-free flour can bring an added value of up to THB 486 billion to fresh cassava

Thailand is a major exporter of primary agricultural products in the world, but given the fluctuation of the prices of agricultural products while the global economy adapts to the new normal, the development of added value for agricultural products is an urgent task. The processing of agricultural p... Read more

29 Jul 2020

Econ Digest

Thailand’s Environmental Performance Index improves in 2020, boosting confidence in trade and investment

Thailand’s 2020 Environmental Performance Index (EPI) has risen to 78th in the world, up from 121st in 2018, which is better than the global average and better than similarly ranked countries such as China and the Philippines. However, with the current problems of PM 2.5 particulates, water and drou... Read more

27 Jul 2020

Econ Digest

Fed to keep policy rate steady at 0.0-0.25% during July 28-29 meeting…and may embrace Yield Curve Control if the US economy downturn lasts longer than expected

KResearch expects that the Fed will maintain its policy rate at 0.0-0.25 percent during the Monetary Policy Committee Meeting on July 28-29, 2020, as the measures previously implemented by Fed should be sufficient to support a US economy that shows weak tendencies and will take longer to recover. ... Read more

25 Jul 2020

Econ Digest

Despite Thailand’s exports shrinking by 23.2% in June, the exports of food products grew by 6.8% as lockdown measures abroad boosted the demand for Thai food products

The value of Thai exports in June 2020 stood at USD 16,444 million, shrinking 23.2 percent YoY. As a result, Thai exports contracted by 7.1 percent YoY during the first half of 2020 due to the severe impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the enforcement of lockdown measures abroad, which resulted in w... Read more

24 Jul 2020

Econ Digest

Growth opportunities for digital lending in Thailand remain dependent on access to data and investment in digital technology

Digital lending is a loan service carried out through online platforms such as applications and websites, and which uses alternative data other than information from bank statements or income for credit approval while using AI technology or Big Data Analytics to speed up the credit approval process.... Read more

21 Jul 2020

Econ Digest

Hong Kong, a cause to reignite US-China trade war

The recent revocation of Hong Kong's special status by the United States on July 15, 2020, serves to reignite its ongoing trade feud with China, ahead of the 2020 United States presidential election. KResearch views that the United States has persistently exploited China's sensitive issues, utilizin... Read more

20 Jul 2020

Econ Digest

Effective prevention and control of the COVID-19 pandemic drives 2Q20 China’s economy up by 3.2% YoY…China will resume domestic tourism to support the consumption and employment of more than 28 million people

The Chinese economy reverted to a growth of 3.2 percent YoY in 2Q20, versus the 6.8 percent YoY contraction reported for 1Q20, thanks to the government's effective measures in combating the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, thus allowing economic activity in the country to return to normalcy. Its ind... Read more

17 Jul 2020

Econ Digest

The US revokes Hong Kong’s special status How will the financial, trade, and immigration policies change?

It has been almost two months since tensions between China and the US in regarding to China’s national security law for Hong Kong surfaced, provoking new global geopolitical risks. Recently, President Donald Trump signed an executive order ending preferential treatment for Hong Kong that had existed... Read more

16 Jul 2020

Econ Digest

How much do you know about the Digital Yuan?

China’s digital currency development scheme is often viewed as a tool that can be used by Chinese authorities to reduce the influence of the US dollar (USD), while the COVID-19 pandemic has turned contactless payment systems into a factor that is accelerating the adaption of related parties, promoti... Read more

15 Jul 2020

Econ Digest

The import of rice under AFTA (May 1st-September 30th of each year) helps food processing operators in managing raw materials and controlling production costs

The Ministry of Commerce held a meeting in June 2020 to revise the Announcement of the Ministry of Commerce on the Importing of Rice into the Kingdom of Thailand under the ASEAN Free Trade Agreement B.E. 2553 (2010), aiming to ensure that the import of rice into Thailand properly complies with the A... Read more

14 Jul 2020

Econ Digest

KR-ECI in June 2020 suggests that the perception of households towards living conditions will continue to improve, although the main tasks are to support business sectors and to sustain employment.

KResearch conducted a survey on the living conditions of Thai households in June 2020, at which time the the COVID-19 outbreak in Thailand was continuously improving with no new domestic infection cases reported for months in a row, while the government had relaxed some preventive measures at differ... Read more

13 Jul 2020

Econ Digest

The U.S. opens an anti-dumping investigation into tires imported from Thailand Chinese tire manufacturers in Thailand are the most affected

The COVID-19 pandemic has not only disrupted the production of auto tires in the U.S., but has also led the affected United Steelworkers union to file anti-dumping petitions against imported tires from Thailand, South Korea, Vietnam and Taiwan, due to a significant increase in the importation of aut... Read more

9 Jul 2020

Econ Digest

Household debt in numerous countries begins to rise after the widespread outbreak of covid-19

Although Thailand’s outstanding household debt fell in 1Q20 compared to the previous quarter, the household debt level remains high (80.1% of GDP), as households continue to take on large-sum debts, including loans for house purchases and auto purchases, in line with operators’ marketing campaigns t... Read more

8 Jul 2020

Econ Digest

Household solar rooftop project …plans to raise power feed-in tariff

The solar power project for household rooftops is a project to purchase solar power generated by household rooftop solar panels. Excess electricity will be purchased by Metropolitan Electricity Authority (MEA) and Provincial Electricity Authority (PEA) at a price of THB1.68 per kilowatt-hour (unit) ... Read more

3 Jul 2020

Econ Digest

When VR technology meets 5G - The virtual reality entertainment business is just in time.

The recent spread of COVID-19 has led to the disruption of live shows and sports events. It has also changed the watching behavior of consumers, who have largely switched from live watching to live streaming via online channels to comply with measures to maintain social distancing. However, watching... Read more

1 Jul 2020

Econ Digest

Urban vegetable farming: a modern agriculture trend that will grow together with the change of customer behavior in the new normal era

Urban indoor farming is becoming a global trend due to the limited farmable areas available and the need to ensure food safety for urban residents. Frequent occurrence of uncertain events (epidemics/natural disasters) makes consumers pay more attention to food safety and traceability. Business model... Read more

30 Jun 2020

Econ Digest

Artificial intelligence (AI) -- a catalyst for China's post-COVID economy

Over the past two to three months, another wave of COVID-19 has occurred in some areas of China, including a new round of the pandemic in Jilin and Heilongjiang provinces in mid-May 2020, along with a new cluster of infections in Beijing recently. However, China has adopted strict prevention and con... Read more