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7 Nov 2024

Econ Digest

China’s exports rose by 12.7% YoY in October 2024

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  • China’s exports grew by 12.7%YoY in October 2024, which were driven by a surge in shipments to major markets ahead of a potential escalation in the trade war, following the US presidential election. Exports to the US, Europe, and ASEAN increased by 8.1%, 12.7%, and 15.8%YoY, respectively. The acceleration in exports was also partly supported by delays and disruptions in transportation during September 2024 due to the impact of Typhoon Bebinca. Meanwhile, imports contracted by 2.3%YoY. As a result, China recorded a trade surplus of USD95.7 billion in October 2024.
  • For the final two months of 2024, China’s shipments are expected to rise further before Trump’s inauguration as US president on January 20, 2025. Close attention must also be paid to trade protectionism from other countries as China continues to ramp up exports in industries with overcapacity, particularly the steel industry. In October 2024, China’s steel exports increased significantly by 40.8%YoY.
  • KResearch holds the view that if China’s outward trade maintains its growth momentum during the last two months of the year, this will positively impact the 4Q-2024 economy, leading to better-than-expected growth. Close attention should also be paid to the details of fiscal measures, which are expected to be announced on November 8, 2024. For the full-year 2024, the Chinese economy is projected to grow by 4.8%YoY.

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