Global economy
• Global risks have risen sharply, with the Geopolitical Risk Index (GPR Index) increasing to three times its pre-crisis level.
• Global inflation faces upward pressure from surging energy prices, increasing uncertainty over the timeline for monetary policy easing by major central banks.
• The eurozone has been heavily affected by rising energy costs due to its high reliance on energy imports.
Thai economy
• Exports and the tourism sector are expected to slow down due to high energy prices and transportation constraints.
• The pass-through of global energy costs to domestic prices is expected to push inflation closer to 3%, being a sharp increase from the previous estimate of 0.4%.
• Thailand’s economy in 2026 is expected to slow to 1.2% growth, down from the pre-war forecast of 1.9%.
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