In September 2023, Thailand’s exports grew for the second consecutive month at 2.1%YoY. This was thanks to the steady growth in fruit shipments to China; overall, Thai exports to China surged by 14.4%YoY. Gem and jewelry (including gold) exports recorded substantial growth, driven partly by the short-term factor of the Bangkok Gems and Jewelry Fair organized by the Ministry of Commerce during this period. Price-related factors may help support Thai gold exports going forward.
KResearch views that Thai exports during the rest of 2023 may continue to be pressured by the sluggish global trade amid numerous uncertainties surrounding the global economy, including escalating tensions stemming from the Israel-Hamas and Russia-Ukraine conflicts. There are also many downside risks that may dampen Thai exports, such as forex volatility and erratic weather conditions. Nevertheless, the low base of 4Q2022 and export growth reported in August-September 2023 may help support Thai shipments during the remainder of 2023.
Given this, KResearch views that Thai exports may contract by 2.5% during 2023. However, Thai exports will grow steadily during the rest of 2023, and may shrink at a slower rate than previously estimated.
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