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27 Nov 2023

Econ Digest

MPC Meeting, November 29, 2023: Policy rate will likely be maintained at 2.50%, and this rate may be kept steady throughout 2024


        The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is expected to maintain its policy rate at 2.50% at its upcoming meeting on November 29, 2023, as inflationary pressures have eased substantially while the Thai economy is recovering, albeit at a fragile pace as reflected in the lower-than-expected 3Q2023 GDP growth.

        Looking ahead, KResearch views that the MPC will likely keep its policy rate steady at 2.50% throughout 2024 if the Thai economy continues to recover and grow not slower than it did in 2023. KResearch expects that the steady recovery in the Thai economy will be supported chiefly by tourism. Exports will return to positive territory in 2024 due to a low base in 2023. Economic stimulus measures slated for implementation in 2024 will be an important factor in boosting domestic consumption.

        Meanwhile, inflation is expected to remain within the MPC’s target range of 1-3% in 2024. Although the current inflation rate in Thailand has declined significantly, uncertainty remains over global commodity prices that may escalate again, posing challenges for the government’s implementation of measures aimed at reducing the cost of living, particularly energy bills. The MPC has earlier signaled that it would keep its policy rate at a high level to maintain the policy space to deal with future downside risks, especially if the Fed keeps its rate high for longer in the event of a stronger-than-expected US economy.

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