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7 Aug 2024

Econ Digest

Inflation rose to 0.83% YoY in July 2024. The full-year forecast by KResearch remains at 0.8%, contingent upon government measures aimed at reducing energy costs.

คะแนนเฉลี่ย

Thailand’s headline inflation rose to 0.83% YoY and 0.19% MoM in July 2024. Key drivers included:

  • Rising fuel prices in line with global crude oil prices, while the domestic retail diesel price was still capped at no more than THB33 per liter. This was higher than the same period last year when the cap was no more than THB32 per liter.
  • Prices of food items such as rice, fresh fruits, and processed foods remained higher than during the same period of last year, despite a gradual decrease in the prices of fresh foods from the previous month due to increased market supply.
  • Of the 430 items of goods and services in the inflation basket, the prices of 269 items have continued to rise. Excluding fresh food and energy prices, core inflation accelerated to 0.52% YoY in July 2024, up from 0.36%YoY in June 2024.
        Looking towards the rest of this year, it is anticipated that Thailand’s headline inflation in August may decline as compared to July due to the high base effect of August 2023, following the rising Dubai crude oil price. However, headline inflation is expected to pick up again in 4Q-2024, partly due to the boost from tourism during the high season and the low base effect of 4Q-2023. KResearch maintains its projection for the full-year 2024 headline inflation at 0.8%. The future inflation trend will depend on global oil prices and any potential changes to government measures aimed at stabilizing domestic energy prices.

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Econ Digest

inflation