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4 Oct 2023

Econ Digest

KR-ECI improved in September 2023 and is expected to continue improving in the last quarter of 2023


        In September 2023, the KR-ECI and the 3-month Expected KR-ECI rose to 37.4 and 39.7, respectively, compared to the previous month. This indicates a significant improvement in households’ views towards product prices – particularly in the energy and utility categories – and expenses (excluding debt), following the government’s formation and introduction of stimulus measures such as a reduction in energy prices.
        Moreover, KResearch’s survey findings show that a majority of households (55.2%) have confidence in Thailand’s economic recovery in the fourth quarter of 2023 and believe that it is at a moderate level. Most respondents view that the economy is unlikely to change significantly as compared to the previous quarter due partly to the El Nino impact, which remains one of the uncertainties that could affect economic growth going forward. According to additional survey results, most households in Bangkok see rising prices of agricultural products (61.35%) as the most likely impact of the El Niño phenomenon, while households outside Bangkok are most concerned about the impact of increased water/electricity consumption (52.8%).
        Looking into the final quarter of this year, KResearch anticipates that the KR-ECI is likely to further improve under the ongoing measures designed to alleviate the financial burden on consumers, clarity on the government’s stimulus policies, and the country’s economic recovery driven by the tourism sector. However, any improvement may still face challenges such as abnormal weather conditions, a global economic slowdown, and commodity price volatility.

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Econ Digest