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26 Nov 2024

Econ Digest

Thailand’s export growth surged 14.6% YoY in October 2024, bolstered by the trade war

คะแนนเฉลี่ย

        Thai exports grew by 14.6%YoY in October 2024, surpassing market expectations of 5.1%YoY. Key drivers included geopolitical uncertainties and the US election results yet to be known, which fueled a 169.3%YoY surge in gold exports, boosted by price and volume factors. Additionally, increased imports from the US and the upturn in the electronics cycle supported the growth in exports of hard disk drives and computers.

        Exports of automobiles and components contracted for the second consecutive month, declining by 16.8%YoY, due to the contraction in major markets like Australia and the Middle East amid Middle East conflicts. Additionally, exports of refined oil dropped in line with falling prices and demand as compared to 2023.

        KResearch projects Thai exports for 2024 may grow approximately 4.5%, higher than the prior estimate of 3.2% made on November 18, 2024, although seasonal factors during the remaining 2 months may drag down demand for products, as many markets had previously rushed to import products ahead of year-end festivals. This is attributed to the upturn in the electronics cycle, geopolitical uncertainties that are expected to support gold exports as a safe haven asset, and potential acceleration in US imports until 2025 ahead of the policy implementation.

        For 2025, Thailand’s export growth is expected to slow down as compared to 2024, as risks from a potential new round of trade wars may weigh on trade performance. The impact of the trade war on global trade and Thai exports depends on the form and timing of US import tariff hikes. Thailand will be among the first countries at risk of being taxed by the US or subjected to higher rates than other trading partners, as Thailand ranked 12th among US trade surplus partners in 2023. If the US increases import tariffs on Thai products in categories that rely heavily on the US market, product categories such as furniture, clothing, and electronic products are expected to be more affected than others.

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