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28 Nov 2023

Econ Digest

Thai exports expanded for the third consecutive month in October 2023; KResearch projects that Thai exports will contract by less than previously forecast.


        Thailand’s exports expanded by 8.0%YoY in October 2023, marking an improvement for the third consecutive month. This growth was bolstered by a low base of 2022, substantial shipments to the US market with growth of up to 13.8%YoY, and a steady expansion of fruit exports to China. At the same time, the country’s exports of refined oil increased in line with global oil prices, while its shipments of gold as a safe-haven asset rose amid geopolitical tensions.

        Looking into the remainder of 2023, Thai exports are likely to be in a positive territory thanks to the low base effect of last year. However, the uncertain global economic conditions may hinder the prospects of the country’s outbound shipments. Even though the Israel-Hamas conflict has shown signs of improvement, geopolitical tensions remain issues that need to be monitored. Meanwhile, the manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) figures in major economies continue to decline. Nevertheless, due to the low base effect and potential demand during the year-end festive season, Thai exports are likely to maintain growth in the remaining months of the year.

        Given this, KResearch projects that overall Thai shipments for 2023 will contract by less than its prior estimate of 2.5%, possibly in the range of 1.5-1.0% contraction.

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