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2 Oct 2026

Econ Digest

Thai and global economic conditions for October 2026

คะแนนเฉลี่ย

Global economy

  • Oil prices are expected to remain elevated and volatile. However, under the baseline scenario, oil prices are not expected to stay above USD100 per barrel for an extended period.
  • Persistently high global energy prices continue to exert upward pressure on inflation and contribute to a tighter monetary policy environment.
  • The US economy remains resilient, but rising inflation and higher financing costs could weigh on economic growth.

Thai economy

  • Despite upside risks from rising global oil prices, Thailand's inflation is projected to remain at 1.8% in 2026, amid weak domestic demand and government support measures.
  • Flooding in Bangkok and its vicinity, as well as in several other provinces is expected to have a net economic impact of approximately 0.03–0.11% of GDP, depending on the severity and duration of the situation.
  • Exports and imports are expected to continue expanding at a strong pace. However, with imports growing faster than exports, Thailand is projected to record its largest trade deficit on record in 2026.


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