The influence of
the Sin Lagu and Higos storms during July and August caused continuous rain, flash
flooding and floodwaters in many areas and resulted in damages in many
provinces. KResearch views that the flooding in many of the northern and northeastern
provinces of Thailand may not significantly affect the
overall agricultural output, especially major–season rice which is the main rice
output of the country, because the rice harvesting season has yet to arrive.
This, coupled with the fact that floodwaters tend to flow through rice fields
in those provinces rather than staying stagnant for too long, has led KResearch
to forecast that the total rice output will not be affected by the aforesaid flooding.
KResearch views that the flooding
may not significantly affect the overall rice output in
2020, and forecasts that the total rice output will reach approximately 29-30
million tons, declining 4.3-7.5% YoY in 2020, mainly due to the drought earlier
in the year, while rice prices may increase 3.0-6.0% YoY to
KResearch expects that Thailand
will continue to experience tropical storms and increased precipitation between
September and October 2020. Close attention, therefore, must be paid to the
strength of tropical storms that could hurt the major-season rice outputs,
because rice supplies have begun to enter the market. This factor, together
with the floodwaters from the north, may potentially hurt the major-season rice
harvest in central Thailand. In addition, southern Thailand will likely be hit
by storms and heavy rain between November and December 2020, resulting in an increased
risk to the local production of rubber and oil palm fruit, which are major
crops grown in the southern region.
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