KResearch estimates that Thailand's pickup exports may undergo smaller shrinkage in 2017 than last year's 13.3 percent. Any contraction will likely be around 2.0-5.0 percent on exports of 550,000-565,000 units, versus a total of 576,585 units reported for 2016. Negative factors include a decline in the Mideast market, due to oil prices that could fall further, as well as on geopolitical risks in the region.
In a concurrent KResearch forecast, Thai pickup exports to the Mideast may decrease by 39-41 percent YoY in 2017. In terms of quantity, they may reach 62,500-64,000 units, significantly lower than the 2016 figure at 105, 606 units, representing an over-year drop of 44.2 percent YoY.
On the brighter side, exports to the Oceania – led by Australia and New Zealand – are believed will grow well, given their markets' warm response to pickup trucks and the gradual closures of pickup plants in Australia. Among the CLMV, exports to Vietnam has expanded at an impressive pace, but they may slow a bit in 2H17 since prospective buyers may await new car prices after a zero-percent AEC import duty waiver comes into force in 2018. We view that pickup shipments to Oceania may rise 10-14 percent YoY to a total of 214,000-222,000 units in 2017, versus 194,433 units in 2016, which was 1.1 percent growth then. Our exports to the CLMV could total around 44,000-45,000 units, rising 7-10 percent YoY, versus 2016 shipments of 41,100 units, representing 7.5-percent growth then.
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