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8 Nov 2023


EU’s anti-subsidy investigation into EU imports of BEVs from China may affect Thailand’s BEV exports in 2024 (Current Issue No.3444)


        Presently, the share of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) imported from China in the European Union (EU) has increased rapidly. Amid growing concerns about this issue, the European Commission, October 4, 2003, formally launched an anti-subsidy investigation into the EU imports of BEVs from China regardless of the nationality of their makers. If the subsidy and injury are established, the European Commission may levy countervailing tariffs on imports of BEVs from China to offset Beijing’s subsidies as early as July 2024.
        If the EU enforces such countervailing tariffs, China’s BEV exports to the EU will be affected to a certain extent. The related impacts may also vary depending on the rate of countervailing duties. KResearch views that Thailand may benefit from the EU’s anti-subsidy measures for BEVs imported from China as affected Chinese BEV manufacturers investing in Thailand may be able to export the same BEV models produced in Thailand to the EU instead. However, the costs of manufacturing BEVs in Thailand may be higher than in China because Chinese BEV makers in Thailand have only recently begun their assembly lines here, meaning that they have yet to achieve the economies of scale. Given this, they may only be able to export some BEVs to the EU from Thailand. KResearch views that of at least 70,000 BEVs that Chinese carmakers can produce in Thailand, about 10,000 units may be exported to the EU in 2024. Although the figure is relatively low or accounts for less than 8 percent of the total BEVs exported by Chinese car companies to the EU (at least 130,000 units projected for 2024), it presents an important step for Thai BEV exports to the EU.    
        However, the projected BEV exports to the EU may be lower than our estimate if the EU’s anti-subsidy investigation is delayed or there are issues affecting the EU’s decision, including a disagreement among EU member states towards such countervailing duties. Moreover, China may introduce retaliatory measures that could affect the BEV manufacturing industry in Europe as it currently dominates the battery manufacturing supply chain.