Sugar is one of the products that will likely help boost Thai food and beverage exports during 2022 and through to 2023, thanks to the elevated global sugar prices and recovery in domestic sugar output. Additionally, its demand remains intact as COVID-19 in many countries has begun to ease and due to the global food crisis. However, there are challenges from higher global sugar supplies that may cause international sugar prices and export prices of Thai sugar to decline. Moreover, intense price competition in global sugar markets, uncertainty surrounding the new Sugarcane and Sugar Act, and sugar consumption policies and trends of trade partners may affect Thailand’s sugar production and exports going forward.
Although there are trading opportunities, numerous challenges, including a potential global economic downturn, may affect prices of various commodities, including sugar. We at KResearch expect that the value of Thai sugar exports may reach USD3,590-3,730 million during 2023, an increase of 1-5 percent YoY, against the projected growth of 125 percent projected for 2022. That marginal growth will chiefly be supported by an expected increase in exports to major trade partners, given their continuing demand for sugar, and to new trade partners seeking alternative sources of sugar imports in place of India, which has restricted its sugar shipments. Additionally, Thai sugar shipments will be bolstered by higher global sugar prices.