Thai Exports, November 2020: Contracting at Slower Rate…But COVID-19 Pandemic in US and EU Set to Pressure 2021 Shipments (Business Brief No.3902)

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Thailand's outward trade exhibited improving signs in November 2021 despite soaring COVID-19 infections in the US and Europe. November shipments shrank only 3.65 percent YoY, against the 6.71 percent YoY contraction reported for October 2020. Excluding oil-related products, gold and arms, November exports contracted only 2.09 percent YoY. Shipments of industrial products shrank 2.9 percent YoY, with cars, accessories and auto-parts reverting to growth for the first time in nine months at 10.3 percent YoY. Meanwhile, agricultural exports contracted only 2.4 percent YoY in November after shrinking 8.8 percent YoY in October because many agricultural product shipments resumed growth.
Due to a second wave of COVID-19 in many countries, most of them began imposing lockdown measures again, especially in Europe. As a result, Thai exports to the EU contracted 8.5 percent YoY.
Looking into 2021, Thailand's outward trade will continue to be plagued by numerous downside risks. These include uncertainties surrounding the global economic recovery, shortages of shipping containers, rising sea freight rates and the strengthening Baht. Amid those risks, KResearch projects that Thai exports may grow 3.0 percent in 2021.

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