Overall economic figures for September 2010 reported by the BOT and Office of Industrial Economics reflect an obvious deceleration in domestic spending, industrial production and exports. These signals may be indicating that we will see a slowdown in 2H10.
KResearch has estimated that GDP growth in 3Q10 may contract QoQ. Although the GDP may surge to over 5.5 percent YoY, it may decelerate from the double-digit growth of 10.6 percent seen in 1H10.
During 2H10, KResearch views that the Thai economy may decelerate further amid many uncontrollable risks, such as the Baht appreciation, deceleration seen in the economies of trade partners as well as flooding and other natural disasters. These factors may pressure the government into implementing economic relief measures to forestall unpleasant situations and help our economy to survive amid continued global economic instability. Despite many negative factors lying ahead, KResearch expects that Thai economic growth (despite flooding that may dampen our GDP growth by 0.1-0.2 percent) may grow 6.8-7.0 percent, which may be higher than what was seen during previous years.