2242esmc
KASIKORN RESEARCH CENTER (KResearch) holds the view that clashes along the Thai-Cambodian border may have little economic impact if they are resolved within a month. In such a case, the border conflict could cost Thailand at least THB1.1 billion in lost revenue. However, if the rift between the two countries extends to three months, resulting border closures at Si Sa Ket and Surin, which may worsen Thai-Cambodian border trade, economic losses could amount to a minimum of THB3 billion. Among the losses would be sales of daily necessities and other products mainly transported into Cambodia via border checkpoints. They would include automobiles, motorcycles (plus parts and accessories), as well as other products that may lose viability with patriotic Cambodian people. The severity of the impact would depend on how long the border closures continue.
Aside from the macro-effects, Si Sa Ket and Surin – the affected provinces – may lose income earned from trade along the border and within the province. Tourism in Si Sa Ket may also be hampered amid the concern of tourists and businesspeople toward safety and security in the vicinity of the contested areas; tourist arrivals from Cambodia would also drop. Even though the Thai-Cambodian dispute may not deal a significant blow to our trade and tourism, the border fighting, if it escalates or is prolonged for more than three months could equate to economic losses higher than KResearch estimates. Thailand could suffer the loss of investment opportunities in Cambodia, a country that is entitled to GSP privileges granted by developed countries and has relatively low wage scales. On the Cambodian side, they would lose investments from Thailand, as well.
If the border conflict is resolved soon, Thailand should exercise the opportunity to expand bilateral trade and investment with Cambodia, taking advantage of several favorable factors, especially import tariffs reduced to 0-5 percent, and the advent of the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) scheduled for 2015.
Annotation
This research paper is published for general public. It is made up of various sources. Trustworthy, but the company can not authenticate. reliability The information may be changed at any time without prior notice. Data users need to be careful about the use of information. The Company will not be liable to any user or person for any damages arising from such use. The information in this report does not constitute an offer. Or advice on business decisions Anyhow.