Headline and Core Inflation was weaker than expected, having fallen slightly to 3.32 percent YoY and 1.83 percent YoY in October 2012, down from than the 3.38 percent YoY and 1.89 percent YoY, respectively, in September. However, October consumer prices increased marginally over the previous month by 0.13 percent in line with a 0.51 percent rise in fresh food prices, led by vegetables (up 17.94 percent), as well as milk and dairy products (up 0.19 percent), as most consumers refrained from eating meat products during the “Kin Jae” festival.
As for the 2012 inflation rate, KResearch has assessed that it will likely be below our previous forecast, because of ongoing government measures to relieve the impact of lofty energy prices on production costs and consumer financial burdens, while global crude oil prices are now at more reasonable levels.
Given this, Headline Inflation over 2012 may average 3.1 percent (lower than our forecast of 3.2-3.5 percent) and Core Inflation should be 2.1 percent (lower than our projection of 2.2-2.3 percent). This trend will provide leeway for the Bank of Thailand to use monetary tools to cope with steepening volatility foreseen in global financial markets amid looming risks to the global economy.
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